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Betfair Horse Racing Trading System 보통 당신은 약간의 성공을 거둔 후에 추종자들이 좀 더 고심하기 시작합니다. 온라인 Forex 그것은 당신 자신의 위에 있어야하는 것이 중요합니다 마인드 스핏핑을 할 때, 출구에 주저 함으로 인해 수익성이있는 이전의 두피는 빨리 사라질 수 있습니다. 바이너리 옵션 방법과 프로 시저 50 보증금 입금 성공 가능성을 높이려면 가격이 상당히 안정된 상황을 찾아야합니다. 시장에 진입하는 일치하는 베팅의 양은 가능한 한 높습니다. 카테고리 아카이브 선택한 포스트. 홍콩 및 런던에 소재한 실제 골드는 장외 시장에서 물리적 거래를위한 Exchange를 통해 COMEX 금 선물 계약을 해결하는 데 사용됩니다. 이 게시물은 GOFO 및 금 도매 시장 이해의 속편이며 COMEX 금 선물은 거래 대상 인 적격 재고 목록으로 직접 결제 될 수 있습니다 알 EFP 거래가 설명되고 COMEX에서 미결제를 늘리거나 줄일 수있는 방법이 주제에 익숙하지 않다면 이전 게시물을 읽는 것이 좋습니다. 대부분의 애널리스트가 COMEX 100 온스 금 선물 계약을 추측합니다 GC는 물리적으로 만 가능합니다 인수 및 납품을 통해 해결할 수 있습니다. 이는 장외 시장을 통해 GC에서 EFP 거래의 가능성을 배제 할 경우 기술적으로 사실입니다. GC의 Exchange 거래가 공개적이고 경쟁적으로 수행되는 동안 OTC 영역에서 GC 거래 및 가격 그 형태와 위치는 구매자와 판매자 사이에 개인적으로 협의 된 거래입니다. COMEX는 CME Group의 자회사입니다. COME는 ClearPort라고하는 플랫폼에서 OTC 거래를 제공합니다. COMEX는 뉴욕에서 가장 액체 금 선물이기 때문에 전 세계에서 가장 많이 사용되는 통화로 표시된 귀금속 선물을 세계 곳곳에서 교환하며, 금 금속 업계 참가자는 금속을 헤징하는 등 다양한 이유로 GC를 사용합니다 계약 외 납부 가능 지리학 EFP를 통해 어떤 가격 으로든 계약을 물리적으로 해결할 수 있습니다. EFP에서 두 당사자는 단기 및 장기 선물 계약에 서명하고 동시에 역 거래를 수행합니다. 매도 및 매도 한쪽은 선물 계약을 파기합니다 다른 하나는 장래의 계약을 매수하고 관련 위치를 매도하면서 EEFP 거래는 미결제 금을 늘리거나, 미결제를 줄이거 나, 그것을 바꾸지 않을 수있다. EFP 거래에 들어가기 전에 양 당사자가 보유하고있는 기존 직책 EFP가 미결제 금을 줄이면 정착 직위를 적용 할 수있는 또 다른 방법은 위치를 상쇄하거나 직위를 상쇄하는 것입니다. 실제 사례를 살펴 보겠습니다 다음 사진은 데이터 랭글러와 골드 전문가 Nick Laird 웹 사이트에서 나에게 보냈습니다. 책에서 가져온 것 골드에 대한 전망 The view to th 2000 년 Timothy Green 저서 발췌문에서 저자는 러시아인들이 80 년대에 스위스에서 금메달을 팔았을 때의 기술에 대해 설명합니다. 이 예는 계약서가 아닌 지리적으로 보유 된 EFP 헷지 금속에 관한 이전 예와 일치합니다. 지리 은행, 광산 업체 또는 정유 공장은 COMEX가 부족하고 예를 들어 스위스에서 골드를 물리적으로 결제해야하는 경우 EFP를 통해 짧은 포지션을 풀 수 있습니다 유일한 요구 사항은 관련 포지션 구성 요소의 수량이 Exchange 구성 요소 의미의 수량과 거의 같아야한다는 것입니다 현장 다리는 GC의 기본 자산 인 100 온스 이상의 금이어야합니다. 이 예에서는 GC 짧은 홀더가 CME ClearPort를 통해 Exchange로 연결됩니다. 물리적 인 경우 EFP 거래에서 그는 장기 계약을 구매하여 동시에 판매합니다 스팟 그가 스위스에서 신체적 인 면모를 판매하는 동안 그의 길고 짧은 것이 그물망에 빠질 것입니다. 효과적으로 COMEX 쇼트는 육체적으로 계약의 전달 가능한 지리적 위치에 정착 당연히 무역의 다른 면인 스위스에서도 긴 자리가 풀릴 수 있습니다. EFP는 CME의 홍콩 금고를 통해 키로 바를 이동합니다. 2015 년 3 월 CME는 골드 킬로 선물 계약 GCK 홍콩에서 물리적으로 인도 가능하지만 시행 후부터는이 장비에 대한 참여가 부족한 상태에서 처음부터 GCK 거래량은 거의 없었으며 인도는 거의 발생하지 않았음에도 불구하고 홍콩의 CME 승인 창고를 통해 엄청난 양의 킬로 바 골드가 유통되었습니다 Brink s, Inc 소유의 Kong 평균 3 9 톤 / 일이이 금고에서 철거되지만 때로는 일일 인출이 20 톤만큼 높습니다. 출처 2 CME Kilobar 인도 물량이 너무 적기 때문에 눈에 띄지 않습니다. Exchange의 GCK가 너무 낮습니다. 인출은 장외 거래로 설명해야합니다. CME 대표는이 사실을 나에게 홍콩의 vaul t는 EFP 거래로 인해 발생합니다. 그러나 GCK 볼륨 페이지를 보면 공개 된 EFP 거래를 전혀 볼 수 없습니다. 대조적으로 EFP의 GC 양은 상당합니다. 홍콩의 CME에서 승인 된 창고에서 골드 키바가 될 수 있습니까? 100 온스 선물 계약을 해결합니다. 내 이론은 스위스 정유소에서 서구의 금괴 은행에서 구입 한 킬로 바스가 COMEX에서 헷지되고, 금이 도착하면 홍콩은 반납됩니다 EFP를 통해 금은 장갑차에 의해 중국에서 국경 간 물류 면허가있는 Brink s의 Shanghai Gold Exchange 지정 심천에있는 창고로 운송됩니다 내 이론에 대한 지원, 아래의 전시회 3 참조 금 수입 CME의 금고에서받은 ​​킬로 볼트와 CME의 금고에서 철수 된 킬로 볼트 대 홍콩에서 재수출 한 것 사이의 상관 관계는 홍콩을 통해 이동하는 대부분의 금을 지적합니다. CME의 금고를 통해 움직입니다. 그리고이 처리량의 대부분이 EFP와 관련되어 있기 때문에, 나는 KEX를 미래의 문제 해결에 사용한다고 가정합니다. EFP 트랜잭션이 실행되기 때문에 내 이론이 정확한지 테스트하기가 어렵습니다. 장외 시장과 거의 정보가 없다 가능하다. 홍콩에서의 처리량은 EFP와 관련이 있지만 GS의 공개 이익에 영향을 미치지 않는다. 다른 이론을 가진 사람이 있다면 아래에 의견을 말하십시오. 런던 골드 오프셋 COMEX Futures. We는 스위스와 홍콩은 금 선물을 청산하는 데 사용됩니다 그러나 런던의 증거금은 COMEX의 입장을 단계적으로 제거하는 데 사용됩니다. 이 주제를 연구 할 때 나는 특히 COMEX Governors의 Northport Commodities 멤버 인 William Purpura에게 연락했습니다 위원회와 1982 년부터 2007 년까지 COMEX 플로어에서 이전에 EFP를 사용하는 방법에 대한 예를 들어 Purpura에 질문 함 그는 나에게 추가 된 괄호로 대답했습니다. 대부분 EFP는 괴금 은행에서 수행합니다. 런던과 뉴욕의 시간은 많습니다. 런던과 뉴욕을 비교해 보면 COMEX에서 뉴욕에 오전 8 시경에 게시 된 많은 EFP를 볼 수 있습니다. 런던과 뉴욕 그리고 그물을 뽑습니다. 뉴욕 선물 위치를 씻어 내리기 위해 EFP를 실행하십시오. 런던의 관련 위치가 할당되지 않았다고 주장 할 수 있습니다. 확실하지 않습니다. EFP 시장 규정 자문 통지문에 대한 CME의 최신 공식. RA1311-5R은 명시했습니다. 관련 위치 요소는 물리적 거래는 EFP 거래 유형으로 거래를 위해 제출되어야합니다. 일반적으로 도매 골드 시장의 말투에서 물리적 인 것도 할당되지 않은 금에 사용됩니다. 이는 제 생각에는 정확히 물리적이지 않습니다. 나는 언급 한 것보다 더 많은 방법이 있다고 확신합니다. COMEX에서 미결제에 영향을 미치는 EFP 나 ClearPort에서 사용할 수있는 사적으로 협상 된 거래 PNT를 사용하십시오. 한 가지 확실한 사실은 재래식 인도 만이 미래 선물 포지션을 종결시키는 유일한 방법이 아니라는 것입니다 금 선물 룰 북에서 이는 CME Group이 명시 적으로 언급 한 것입니다. 아래에서 발췌 한 것은 금 선물 계약 체결을 중단하는 것입니다 .113102 E 거래 종료. 이번 달에 금 선물 거래는 3 번째 그 달의 영업일 마지막 거래일 이후에 남아있는 계약은 반드시 있어야합니다. A 배달 결정은 배달 달의 첫 번째 영업일 또는 그 다음 달의 영업일로부터 시작하여 그 달의 마지막 영업일 이전에 이루어집니다. B 관련 위치 EFP에 대한 선의의 교환을 통해 청산. 이것은 글로벌 지와 물리적 금 시장의 우리의 구속에 중요합니다. COMEX 금 선물 선적 통계는 거기에 전부가 아닙니다. 중국 금에 대해 알아야 할 것이 있습니다. 시장 및 중국의 사적 및 공식 금 수요의 진정한 규모 여기에서 시작하십시오. 이 게시물은 BullionStar 블로그에 수년간 발표 된 모든 관련 기사를 통해 중국 국내 금 시장 및 중국 황금 수요의 역학을 설명합니다. If 당신은 중국 황금 시장에 새로운 사람이거나 기억을 새롭게하고 싶습니다. 이 게시물은 공부하고자하는 중국 황금 시장의 모든 부분을 탐색 할 수있는 출발점을 제공합니다. 예를 들어, 중국 금 수요 지표 인 Shanghai Gold Exchange SGE 시스템, 중국 국경 금 무역 규칙, 중국 금 임대 시장 및 공식 금 보유액 중국 인민 은행 PBOC . BullionStar 블로그 게시물은 총괄하여 중국 금 시장의 모든면을 분명히합니다. 중국 금 시장의 요점 중국 금 시장의 역학이 모든 중국 금 시장 발전을 개발할 때마다 또는 새로운 것이 출현 할 때마다 포괄적 인 상태로 유지 될 것입니다 세계 최대 규모의 물리적 금 시장에 대한 지식 기반 모든 중국 골드 마켓 에센셜은 최근에 재 작성되었으며 PBOC 금 구매에 관한 게시물에는 많은 중요한 새로운 통찰력이 포함되어 있습니다. 월간 중국 금 수입 수와 같은 주요 데이터는 업데이트되지 않습니다 그러나 중국 골드 마켓 에센셜에서는이 데이터가 BullionStar 블로그 홈페이지에 게시 된 새로운 블로그 게시물에 게시 될 예정이며이 웹 페이지에 대한 링크는 완료되어야합니다. 불분명 한 점이 있으면 추가 정보가 있거나 제안은 중국 골드 마켓 에센셜을 개선하기 위해 이메일을 보내 주시기 바랍니다. 중국 골드 시장 이해 B 단계 y 단계. 중국 국내 금 시장의 독특한 구조, SGE 시스템, 그리고 매주 발행 된 SGE 금고에서 철수 한 실제 금의 양을 중국 도매 금 수요의 척도로 사용할 수있는 이유는 다음과 같습니다. 1 부 중국 국내 금 시장의 역학 또한 중국 금 수요를 측정하기 위해 적용되는 대조 통계에 대한 기본적인 이해와 SGE 철수와 중국 소비자 금 수요 간의 차이점은 2007 년부터 2015 년까지 최소 2,500 톤 세계 골드 협의회와 그 계열사는 지속적으로 차이점을 설명해야하는 미약 한 주장을 제시합니다. 중국 골드 마켓 에센셜은 필요한 경우 이러한 논쟁을 폭로하고 사실에 근거하여 중국의 금 수요를 공개합니다. 중국 국내 금 시장 및 중국의 자유 무역 지역 내외로의 국경 간 금 거래에 관한 세부 규칙 중국 국내 금 시장 및 중국 국경 금 무역 규칙의 메커니즘을 완전히 이해하면 상하이 국제 금 거래소의 작업을 계속 읽을 수 있습니다. SGE는 아시아의 주요 금 거래 허브로 자리 잡았습니다. SGE 철수는 SGE 철수로 측정했을 때 상하이 국제 금 교환 SGEI의 거래 활동이 중국 도매 금 수요에 대한 우리의 시각을 어떻게 흐리게 할 수 있는지에 대해 논합니다. Congratz이 시점에서 당신은 중국 금 시장에 대한 철저한 이해를 가지고 있습니다 차이점에 대해 더 자세히 알아보기 중국 상품 금융 거래를 계속하십시오 중국 금 대출 시장에 관한 주로 설명되어 있습니다이 게시물에는 중국 금 임대 시장에 관한 추가 게시물에 대한 많은 링크가 포함되어 있습니다. 그 중에서도 2011 년에 PBOC에 의해 작성된 종이는 Bullion 별 차이점에 대한 상세한 연구와 중국의 실제 금 수요에 대한 자세한 내용은 SGE 철회 이유와 동등한 중국 금 수요와 왜 찬성표가 필요하지 않은지 읽어보십시오. 마지막으로 PBOC 금 구매액을 읽어보십시오. 최근 중국의 민간 보유 비축 이외에 중앙 은행이 포스트의 끝 부분에서 중국 개인 소유의 금 및 공식 보유 물의 추정 금 액에 대한 개요를 찾을 수 있습니다. 이 게시물은 최근 몇 달간 많은 새로운 기부금을 모았습니다 읽어야합니다. 이 게시물은 중국 골드 마켓 필수 시리즈의 일부입니다. 세계 최대의 물리적 금 시장에 대한 포괄적 인 이해를 위해 모든 중국 골드 마켓 에센셜 개요로 가려면 여기를 클릭하십시오. SGE 인출과 중국 소비자 골드 수요의 차이점 세계 금 협의회 (World Gold Council)에 의해 공개 된 바와 같이 2007 년부터 3,193 톤까지 총 2014 년까지이 기사가 Natur 우리는 중국의 금 수요에 대한 최고의 이해를 얻으려고 이곳에 왔습니다. 차이점이 어떻게 발생했는지 설명하기 서구 컨설팅 회사는 회의에서 출판과 강의에 몇 가지 논점을 제시했습니다. 그 중 누구도 차이점을 완전히 설명 할 수는 없습니다. 그 논쟁이 내 자신의 주장에 의해 보완 된 것입니다. 아래에서 논의가 어느 정도까지 차이를 야기 할 수 있었는지 여부를 조사 할 것입니다. 결과적으로 우리의 최선의 추정치를 계산할 수 있도록 적용 할 수있는 모든 메트릭스의 세부 사항을 논의 할 것입니다. 중국의 금 수요는 2007 년 기준으로 2014 년이다. 이것은 지금까지 연대순으로 정리 된 목록이다. 산업 수요. 이동 변화. 주변 트립. 공식 구매. 재계 금. 상하이 국제 금 교환 .2014 년 세계 금 협의회 WGC는 중국 금 시장에 대한 두 가지 특별 보고서를 발표했는데 그 차이점에 대한 빛을 밝혀야합니다. 중국의 금 시장 진도와 Pr ospects 양식 2015 년 4 월과 2014 년 8 월부터 중국 s 금 시장 이해 이해하지만, 이 보고서는 많은 허위 진술을 포함하고 나는 여러 게시물에서 지적했듯이 그 차이점을 비참하게 끝내지 못합니다. 놀랍게도, 보고서가 발표되었습니다. 서구 컨설팅 회사는 새로운 인수를 생각해 냈습니다. 차이점을 설명해야합니다. 예전의 인수가 실패했을 때 인수가 변했을 때, 여러분이 뻔뻔스럽게 옮겨서 새로운 것을 내놓았을 때의이 변화에주의를 환기시키고 싶습니다. 논쟁이 끊임없이 변하고있다. 중국의 금 시장에 관한 서구 컨설팅 회사의 명백한 무지와 그것이 갖고있는 모든 주장의 약점을 확인하고있다. 먼저 모든 논점을 검토하여 어떤 의미가 있는지 조사해 보자. 몇 가지 중요한 문제를 해결할 것입니다 .1 산업상의 요구 제게 제시된 첫 번째 논쟁은 WGC에서 나왔습니다. 2013 년 8 월에 나는 그들의 e xplanation은 중국 금 수요와 PBOC에 의해 공동 작성된 CGA Gold Yearbooks에 공개 된 요구 사이의 차이였습니다. 이는 SGE 인출과 정확하게 같습니다. 그들은 이메일로 저에게 답했습니다. Gold Demand Trends에 게시 한 데이터는 우리를 위해 수집됩니다 Thomson Reuters GFMS 우리의 데이터는 주얼리 및 바코드 수요를 나타내며 PBoC 수치에 포함 된 산업 수요 또는 제조를 통합하지 않습니다. 이 유형의 데이터 수집은 독점적 인 소스 및 GFMS와 PBOC 모두에서 반드시 같을 필요는 없습니다. 따라서 수요 예측치가 다소 다를 수 있다는 것은 놀라운 일이 아닙니다. WGC는 산업 수요에 따라 3,193 톤의 금의 차이를 확인하지만, 어떤 이유로 든 WGC 중국 금 수요에서 산업 수요가 포착되지 않아 메트릭스 관점과의 차이점을 부분적으로 설명합니다. GFMS, Metals Focus 또는 CPM Group이 아닌 WGC가 공개 한 중국 금 수요에 대한 SGE 인출은 WGC가 세계적으로 투자자가 쉽게 접근 할 수있는 데이터 소스이기 때문에 가능합니다. 일반적으로 투자자와 뉴스 제공 기관은 WGC에 공급 및 수요를 문의합니다 통계를 통해 정확성을 테스트하는 것이 가장 중요합니다. WGC가 데이터에서 산업 수요를 포함시키지 못하는 이유는 무엇입니까? 그러나 자체 조사를 위해 간단히 주목해야합니다. 산업 수요는 합법적 인 논증이며 그 양은 이 게시물의 끝 부분에서 실제 중국 금 수요에 대한 자체 계산을 고려했습니다 .2 주식 이동 변화 2013 년 8 월 GFMS에 CGA 골드 연감에 차이점이 어떻게 표시되었는지 순수한 투자에 대해 질문했을 때 그들은 이메일로 저에게 편지를 보냈습니다 우리는 데이터 전문가와 점검하여 다른 방법론을 사용하고 있음을 확인했습니다. Thomson Reuters GFMS에서 사용하는 총 중국 수요는 보석, 물리적 덩어리 막대기 coi ns 및 모든 산업 수요 본질적으로 항목 인 주식 이동 변화는 순 투자가 기본 수요로 포함되지 않습니다. 따라서 카테고리 6에 따라 재고 이동 변화가 있습니다. 보석상, 민트, 산업재의 주식에 금이 추가됩니다 회사 등이 있습니다. 매년 수백 톤입니다. 데이터 전문가가 제공 한 해결책에 따라 정확합니다. SGE가 도매 수요를 포착하기 때문에 보석 회사, 정유 회사, 산업 회사 및 민트가 SGE는 아직 소매업에서 판매하지는 않았으므로 재고 움직임의 변화는 합법적 인 주장이지만, 재고량이 3 천 354 톤이라는 차이점을 결코 설명 할 수는 없다. WGC에 따르면 금 125 톤 그러나 2009 년부터 2013 년까지 중국 국내 황금 시장에서 재고로 흡수되었을 수 있습니다. 그러나 보석상이 확장됨에 따라 재고 수준도 높아졌으며 업계 전반에 걸쳐 2009 년부터 75 톤에서 125 톤 사이의 제품이 공급망에 흡수되었을 수 있다는 당사의 판단입니다. 2007 년부터 2014 년까지의 차이를 조사 할 기간으로 200 톤의 추정치를 사용할 것입니다. 재고 이동 변화. 재고 변동은 합법적 인 논증이며, 이 게시물의 끝 부분에서 실제 중국 금 수요를 계산할 때 볼륨이 고려 될 것입니다 .3 ROUND TRIPPING 2014 년 4 월 WGC는 중국에 대한 중국의 보고서 금 시장 진전 및 전망 2010 년 China Gold Report가 발표 된 것은 중국 최초의 WGC 보고서가 아니었지만 중국 금 시장 구조, 상하이 금 거래 및 공급 잉여에 대해위원회가 정교화 한 것은 처음이었습니다 중국의 금 시장에서 논리적으로 볼 때, 이사회는 중국이 수요로 공개 한 것보다 훨씬 많은 금을 수입 한 것이 확실해 일부 설명을했다. 처음으로 중국 상품 파이낸싱 거래 CCFD는 Council의 광범위한 독자층에게 소개되었습니다. 이 유형의 파이낸싱은 값싼 자금을 확보하기 위해 추진되었습니다. 라운드 트립이나 금리스를 할 수 있습니다. 위원회는 썼습니다. 이 작업은 두 가지 범주로 나뉘어 있습니다. 둘 사이에는 첫째로, 융자를 통한 금의 사용과 융자의 형태로서의 신용장 LC를 통한 사용이 있습니다. 둘째, 금 융찰이나 LC를 기반으로하는 금융 재정 거래 운영을위한 금 사용이 있습니다. 대부분의 경우 금은 홍콩으로 재빨리 재수출됩니다. 종종 금 보석이나 장신구로 사용되어 종종 금괴 수출에 대한 통제를 강화합니다. 이는 일반적으로 왕따 행위라고도합니다. 중국으로 유입되는 거의 모든 금이 SGE를 통과하기 때문에, 라운드 트립은 SGE 납품 수치를 부 풀릴 수 있습니다. 다른 경우에는 금속이 중국이나 홍콩의 금고에 저장됩니다. 특히 굵게 표시된 부분은 사실이 아니므로 이전 포켓에서 읽을 수 있습니다 sts Basically, round tripping gold flows are completely separated from the Chinese domestic gold market and the SGE system, therefor they can not inflate SGE delivery or withdrawals. So, round tripping is not a legitimate argument To my understanding the WGC has abandoned this argument all together, though GFMS still thinks round tripping inflates SGE withdrawals In their Gold Survey 2015 it s written page 78. the round tripping flows between Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland, which also inflates the SGE turnover and withdrawal figures.4 GOLD LEASING The other CCFD is leasing In the WGC report from April 2014 it s stated. No statistics are available on the outstanding amount of gold tied up in financial operations linked to shadow banking but Precious Metals Insights PMI believes it is feasible that by the end of 2013 this could have reached a cumulative 1,000t. PMI insinuated 1,000 tonnes is tied up in CCFDs, but as I ve clearly demonstrated in previous posts this is not true There is n o need to go over this again if you wish please read my previous posts for a detailed analysis.5 OFFICIAL PURCHASES Often it s being thought in the gold space SGE withdrawals end up in the vaults from the People s Bank Of China PBOC Early 2013 the WGC speculated the difference could be explained by official purchases, later that year the Council changed its mind From the July 2014 WGC report on China , Understanding China s Gold Market , we can read. China s authorities have a range of options when purchasing gold They may acquire some of the gold which flows into China there has been no shortage of that But there are reasons why they may prefer to buy gold on international markets gold sold on the SGE is priced in yuan and prospective buyers for example, the PBoC with large multi-currency reserves may rather use US dollars than purchasing domestically-priced gold The international market would have a lot more liquidity too. In my post PBOC Gold Purchases Separating Facts from Speculatio n I ve analyzed why it doesn t make sense for the PBOC to purchase gold through the SGE The firms will agree the PBOC is not likely to buy gold through the SGE and thus official purchases cannot make up the difference we re after.6 RECYCLED GOLD The most obvious argument to explain elevated SGE withdrawals, one would think, is recycled gold through the bourse counted over and over as withdrawn Though, SGE rules command bars withdrawn are not permitted to re-enter the vaults before being remelted and assayed by an SGE approved refinery Which is not say it doesn t happen. Arguments presented by the firms regarding recycled gold must be divided in subcategories In Understanding China s Gold Market the WGC was correct in pointing out there are two sorts of scrap flows going through the SGE gold-for-cash and gold-for-gold. Gold can be sold for cash, thereby increasing supply, while gold can also be sold for gold, increasing both supply and demand Gold-for-gold supply does not affect the suppl y-demand balance, hence it s not counted as supply in WGC metrics nor is the matching demand side I would say gold-for-gold cycles through the SGE are a legitimate argument that explain SGE withdrawals to inflate and therefor will be taken into account for our calculation of genuine Chinese gold demand at the end of this post. Let s have a look at examples of gold-for-gold.6 1 Process scrap This argument was first presented by CPM Group In short, CPM states industrial companies produce 50 70 scrap supply of the gold used in manufacturing The scrap spillover flows back to the SGE Process scrap thus inflates SGE supply and demand, because the gold was bought at the SGE demand , but flows back for a significant part supply Although, it s unknown how much of this gold actually flows back to the SGE or is brought to a refinery for toll refining a refinery producing bars or wire from the process scrap for the industrial company in return for a fee. Process scrap, described in detail by Jeffrey Christian at the very end of this post, is a form of gold-for-gold scrap supply.6 2 Arbitrage refining This argument was brought forward by GFMS on 17 February 2015 at the Reuters Global Gold Forum when Jan Harvey interviewed Samson Li GFMS. Some people see withdrawals on the Shanghai Gold Exchange as a proxy for Chinese demand Do you think this is valid. It depends on the methodology used For example there are refiners that would, at times, withdraw 9995 gold bars from the SGE, refine it into 9999 bars whenever there is profitable opportunity, and then deposit it back into SGE vault. Presumably there can be an arbitrage opportunity at the SGE if Au99 95 gold is an X percentage cheaper than Au99 99 gold Such a spread would be a classic example of one of the contracts being under or overvalued relative to the other. I m not a trader, but I can imagine a way to close the arbitrage through gold leasing This is my theory if a spread occurs Au99 95 is bought, concurrently Au99 99 LAu99 99 is b orrowed and immediately sold Then the Au99 95 is withdrawn, refined into Au99 99 and returned to the lender. If the arbitrage described above can be closed inter alia depends on the speed to which a lease contract can be settled If a spread occurs and the refiner has to wait 2 days before it can take delivery of Au9999, the arbitrage won t fly I ve asked the ICBC gold lease desk what would be the fastest possibility to sign a lease contract They told me usually it takes several days or weeks as the lessee s credit rating must be determined Though, for regular customers the lease ca be executed in one hour. It s hard for me to say if arbitrage refining is really possible according to the aforementioned theory, because it depends on many variables and the established relationship between lessor and lessee In addition, why would anybody sell Au99 95 if it was undervalued In my opinion the argument that arbitrage refining inflates SGE withdrawals can be doubted.6 3 VAT schemes This argument I found it myself, but is not yet fully worked out On the South China Morning Post there was an article published wherein an illegal VAT scheme is described which I suspect can inflate SGE withdrawals I will investigate this scheme as soon a possible, for now, this is all I have. So how much is gold-for-gold in total all aggregated process scra p and potential arbitrage refining and VAT schemes We can estimate total gold-for-gold supply and I will tell you how The advantage of calculating total gold-for-gold supply is that it doesn t require us to know exactly how much all separate gold-for-gold volumes are. Every year the Chinese publish the composition of total supply in the Chinese wholesale gold market in the CGA Gold Yearbooks Have a look at the next chart I ve added GFMS scrap which is gold-for-cash supply. The gap between the green bars total supply and the red bars SGE withdrawals are caused by additional scrap flows gold-for-gold through the SGE. By knowing, i SGE withdrawals, ii Import, iii , Mine output and iiii Gold-for-cash labeled as GFMS scrap in the chart we can calculate gold-for-gold scrap, because of the structure of the Chinese gold market. Gold-for-gold scrap SGE Withdrawals Import Mine production gold-for-cash. It may be difficult to track process scrap and potential arbitrage refining directly, indirectly the Chinese disclose the volume of both flows as gold-for-gold By knowing import and we can fill in the equation. To come to a thorough understanding of Chinese gold supply demand metrics gold-for-gold scrap flows are very much worth measuring Especially, because since 2013 this supply category has grown.7 EXPORT This argument was brought forward by PMI On a conference in London Phillip Klapwijk, Managing Director of Precious Metals Insights Limited PMI , stated China exports about 1,000 tonnes a year from the domestic gold market However, at this stage the rules prohibit gold export from the Chinese domestic gold market I ve written an extensive an alysis on Klapwijk s presentation click to read , no need to go over this again here The export argument is not legitimate.8 THE SHANGHAI INTERNATIONAL GOLD EXCHANGE This argument is from myself As we could have read in The Workings Of The Shanghai International Gold Exchange and SGE Withdrawals In Perspective the gold withdrawn from the vaults through the SGEI in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone can be exported abroad and thereby distorting Chinese wholesale gold demand when measured by SGE withdrawals However, up until now 16 December 2015 it seems SGEI withdrawals are rarely exported abroad, according to several sources The SGEI argument is not yet legitimate.9 SMUGGLING Naturally, smuggling can cause SGE withdrawals to be inflated Although, we have no numbers on smuggling so I can t take it into account for our calculation of genuine Chinese gold demand. How much is genuine Chinese gold demand. The difference between SGE withdrawals and WGC Chinese consumer gold demand from 2007 until 20 14 accounts for 3,193 tonnes By subtracting the volume of gold involved in legitimate arguments from the total difference we can calculate genuine Chinese gold demand Let s put to work the numbers and see what happens.1 INDUSTRIAL DEMAND Data on Chinese industrial demand wildly varies Thereby, both the CGA and GFMS publish industrial demand including the use of scrap Because the scrap produced by fabricators flows back to the SGE and must be subtracted from SGE withdrawals as gold-for-gold to compute genuine Chinese gold demand, we need to measure industrial demand excluding the use of scrap We ll use an estimate of 200 tonnes for Chinese industrial gold demand excluding the use of scraps from 2007 until 2014.3,193 tonnes minus 200 tonnes 2,993 tonnes.2 STOCK MOVEMENT CHANGE For growth in wholesale inventory from 2007 until 2014 we ll also use an estimate of 200 tonnes.2,993 tonnes minus 200 tonnes 2,793 tonnes.6 GOLD-FOR-GOLD This type of recycled gold supply from 2007 until 2014 acco unted for 903 tonnes.2,793 tonnes minus 903 tonnes 1,893 tonnes. When we subtract the tonnage from all legitimate arguments from total SGE withdrawals we re still left with a difference of 1,893 tonnes of gold Contrasting metrics can only explain the difference for 1,300 tonnes 3,193 1,893.While, the 1,893 tonnes cannot be labeled as anything else than genuine gold demand and many Chinese gold industry executives have publicly disclosed to wholeheartedly agree with me To repeat myself, the residual difference can only be caused by direct purchases from individual and institutional customers at the SGE that withdraw their metal from the vaults. Gold-for-gold can be calculated by subtracting GFMS scrap from recycled. In the chart above you can see the data I ve used to write this post Total SGE withdrawals from 2007 until 2014 accounted for 8,822 tonnes, while WGC demand accounted for 5,629 tonnes over this period We can only correct the difference of 3,193 tonnes by 1,300 tonnes when taken into account contrasting metrics, leaving a difference of 1,893 tonnes.5,629 tonnes WGC demand 1,893 tonnes 7,522 tonnes, which is genuine estimated Chinese gold demand for 2007 until 2014.This post is part of the Chinese Gold Market essentials series Click here to go to an overview of all Chinese Gold Market Essentials for a comprehensive understanding the largest physical gold market globally. In this post we will analyze everything there is to learn about PBOC gold purchases Grasping the exact size of their official gold reserves is unfortunately impossible, assuming they have more than what is publicly disclosed 1,800 tonnes , but there are many clues they ve covertly bought hundreds if not thousands of tonnes of gold since 2009.The purpose of this post is to get an overview of all clues and data in order to separate the facts from speculation regarding PBOC purchases From there we ll estimate how much above ground gold is held in China mainland official PBOC and private reserves. I have been writing for a long time the PBOC does not buy any gold trough the SGE, therefor PBOC purchases must be seen in addition to the flows of gold going through the famous bourse in Shanghai Though, it s necessary to expand on this assumption in detail I ll tell you what I know and what I think. We have a fairly good view on how much gold is going through the SGE and how much non-monetary gold is net imported into China from countries like the UK, Switzerland, Hong Kong and Australia after which it s not allowed to be exported and thus is accumulated in the mainland If we add domestic mine supply to imported gold we can estimate how much gold is held in reserves by the Chinese But, are any of these visible gold flows bought by the PBOC If not, how much does the PBOC buy abroad in addition to the visible flows we see entering China mainland through the SGE These questions are the springboard for our investigation. Why The PBOC Would Not Buy Gold Through The SGE. I ve made a list of re asons why the PBOC would not buy gold through the SGE.1 The PBOC would prefer to buy gold with US dollars, while all physical gold on the SGE is quoted in yuan To get a better grip on this subject it helps if we understand why the PBOC would buy gold in the first place, so let s sum up all possible incentives The main objectives for the PBOC to accumulate physical gold are. Supporting the renminbi for its internationalization adding trust and credibility. Owning hard currency as the cornerstone of capitalism. Owning reserves that protect the Chinese economy from external internal shocks and inflation. Owning neutral reserves that are not controlled by a foreign nation the US. Diversifying its excessively large US dollar USD reserves. Hedge their USD reserves. Overthrow the USD hegemony. After reading this list it should be clear the PBOC rather buys gold with their foreign exchange reserves than with renminbi China s FX reserves are worth about 3 0 trillion and mostly held in USD The amount of gold currently on the PBOC s balance sheet is disproportionate to the amount of USD held Hence, the PBOC would prefer to exchange USD for gold All gold on the SGE is quoted in yuan, meaning the PBOC can t exchange USD for gold through the SGE Therefor, the PBOC is more likely to buy gold abroad and these purchases should be added to the visible gold flows we see entering the mainland through the SGE.2 The PBOC would prefer to buy gold in large 12 5 Kg bars, which have nearly never traded over the SGE It should be said the SGE is a subsidiary of the PBOC In 2002 China s central bank erected the SGE to develop the domestic Chinese gold market for the people to trade gold in yuan The gold bar sizes available on the SGE are 50 gram, 100 gram, 1 Kg, 3 Kg and 12 5 Kg Though, the volume of 12 5 Kg contracts Au99 5 and iAu99 5 ever traded on the SGE is close to nil. Only the 50g, 100g, 1 Kg and 3 Kg bars are traded, which are consumer sizes This is a sign the PBOC is not likely to be buying go ld through the SGE Gold in large 12 5 Kg bars is relatively cheaper and more attractive for central banks All central banks, that I know of, hold large bars.3 The PBOC would prefer to hide its gold purchases The reason we don t know how much Chinese official gold reserves are is because this is the best kept secret in China The PBOC buys gold in utmost secret or it would influence the market and geo-politics If we think from the PBOC s point of view, why would they leave a single trace when buying gold Why would the PBOC buy any gold through the SGE for the world to see I think they wouldn t.4 The PBOC would prefer to import monetary gold which is exempt from being disclosed in customs reports Let me explain All bullion gold trade on planet earth that is visible that shows up in customs reports is classified as non-monetary Monetary gold is exempt from being published in customs reports according to the guidelines in the International Merchandise Trade Statistics 2010 IMTS drafted by t he United Nations This is perfect for the PBOC to covertly ship gold to China. The PBOC, having an incentive to exchange its superfluous USD in the international OTC market for gold, is actually obliged to monetize the gold it buys abroad And when these purchases are transferred to China they will not be disclosed in foreign customs statistics Subsequently, monetary gold imported into China does not go through the SGE we can see only the non-monetary small gold bars go through the SGE Therefor, all visible gold exports to China, traded over the SGE, are not PBOC purchases in my opinion. For more information on global trade rules for monetary and non-monetary gold, please read my blog post The London Bullion Market And International Gold Trade.5 The PBOC would prefer to buy gold in an OTC market, not over an exchange like the SGE The majority of global gold trade is done through the London Bullion Market the most liquid market there is This is not a central exchange like the COMEX, but an Over The Counter OTC market where buyers and sellers connect electronically one on one to trade gold without nosy analysts taking notes The gold traded can be Loco London located in London or elsewhere The London Bullion Market is ideal for the PBOC, as opposed to the SGE.6 Another reason for the PBOC to buy abroad would be because it s cheaper Gold on the SGE often attracts a significant premium over London spot Why pay that premium Especially, if one is buying large quantities.7 There is anecdotal evidence the PBOC covertly imports gold Gold industry expert Jim Rickards has written in The Death Of Money 2014.A senior manager of G4S, one of the world s leading secure logistics firms, recently revealed to a gold industry executive that he had personally transported gold into China by land through central Asian mountain passes at the head of a column of People s Liberation Army tanks and armored transport vehicles This gold was in the form of the 400- ounce good delivery bars favored b y central banks rather than the smaller one - kilo bars imported through regular channels and favored by retail investors. This is very interesting Not only because it demonstrates the PBOC prefers 400 ounce 12 5 Kg bars over 1 Kg bars, but more so because it confirms the PBOC does not import gold through visible channels This strengthens my assumption the PBOC does not buy any gold through the SGE Again, all visible import in general trade is required to be sold through the SGE in China. For information on how monetary gold might be imported into China by the military please read my post China s Gold Army.8 The SGE chairman has stated only consumers buy gold over his exchange On the LBMA Bullion Market Forum in Singapore on 25 June, 2014, a speech was delivered by Xu Luode then Chairman of the Shanghai Gold Exchange Let s read a snippet from Xu. Last year, China imported 1,540 tonnes of gold Such imports, together with the 430 tonnes of gold we produced ourselves, means that we have, in e ffect, supplied approximately 2,000 tonnes of gold last year. The 2,000 tonnes of gold were consumed by consumers in China Of course, we all know that the Chinese dama middle-aged women accounts for a significant proportion in purchasing gold So last year, our gold exchange s inventory reduced by nearly 2,200 tonnes, of which 200 tonnes was recycled gold. Xu mentions the amount of gold imported into China mainland in 2013 1,540 tonnes Would Xu be allowed to break China s best kept secret on an LBMA forum Would any of these imports end up at the PBOC I don t think so Moreover, Xu explicitly says all imports and mine output and scrap supply has been sold through the SGE system to consumers, not the PBOC.9 SGE withdrawals are elevated when consumer buying is strong When examining SGE gold purchases by withdrawals from SGE designated vaults, we can depict a seasonal trend of strong demand around New Year and in April 2013 when the price of gold made its famous nosedive The Chinese people typ ically buy gold in this period as gifts for each other Does this trend look like PBOC activity No.10 The WGC assumes the PBOC doesn t buy gold through the SGE From Understanding China s gold market, July 2014.China s authorities have a range of options when purchasing gold They may acquire some of the gold which flows into China there has been no shortage of that But there are reasons why they may prefer to buy gold on international markets gold sold on the SGE is priced in yuan and prospective buyers for example, the PBoC with large multi-currency reserves may rather use US dollars than purchasing domestically-priced gold The international market would have a lot more liquidity too.11 All reliable sources I have regarding the Chinese gold market tell me the PBOC would not buy gold through the SGE One of these gentleman with ties to bullion banks confirmed to me proxies of the PBOC purchase gold directly in the London OTC gold market that is shipped to Beijing with own airplanes possib ly by the Chinese gold army A Chinese banker also told me the PBOC buys gold in the OTC market.12 The SGE President of the Transaction Department confirmed to Na Liu from CNC Asset Management Ltd the PBOC does not buy any gold through the SGE Na Liu wrote in a report about 2013 SGE withdrawals. none of the 2,200 tonnes of gold was bought by the Chinese central bank The President said The PBOC does not buy gold through the SGE.13 The head of a global operations company in security transport leaked in 2013 that 12 5 Kg bars were covertly imported into China for the PBOC When I interviewed Alex Stanczyk, currently Managing Director of Physical Gold Fund SP on 9 September 2013 he told me brackets added by me. One of our partners had lunch in the recent past with the head of the largest global operations company in security transport He said there is a lot of gold that they re moving into China that s not going through exchanges SGE If the gold is for the government they don t have to declare where it s going They don t have to declare where it s going in, or where it s heading. We talked to the head of the largest refinery in Switzerland and he told us directly that all that metal that s coming out of London 904 tons YTD is being refined into kilo bars and send to China, as well as metal that s coming in from other areas in the world, that s all going to China It s way more than is being reported or moved through the exchanges All the kilo bars go to the Chinese people but the PBOC is likely only buying good delivery. With good delivery Alex means the 12 5 Kg large bars that are not being sold through the SGE, but are imported as monetary gold into China without showing up in any country s customs reports The quote very clearly indicates that 12 5 Kg bars are imported into China for the PBOC without moving through the SGE. Why The PBOC Buys Gold Through The SGE. For a balanced view, below are the counter arguments.1 Gold traders on the SGE buy the dips In the previous chart we could see SGE customers are very keen on buying the dips Is this buying pattern caused by clever consumers or is the PBOC perhaps in play here My response would be, currently the SGE has 8,358 institutional customers and 7 33 million individual customers, I believe these buyers can perfectly be responsible for the buying pattern we see on the SGE with regard to withdrawals in relation to the price of gold.2 Part of the gold sold on the SGE can be found on the balance sheets of Chinese commercial banks Some analysts think this gold can be flipped to the PBOC s balance sheet in the future There is a lot of metal on the balance sheets of Chinese banks Although the annual reports of the banks do not specify these holdings other than precious metals , presumably they can be gold, silver, platinum, gold savings accounts, gold swaps, leases, pledges, derivatives, and much more Let us read a little through the annual reports from ABC, CCB and BOC to learn what these precious metals consist of. Precious metals comprise gold, silver and other precious metals. As a major precious metal market maker in the PRC, the Bank provided customers with precious metal trading, investment and hedging services through leasing gold, trading of precious metal derivative to customers and trading physical precious metal in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the London precious metals market. In 2014, the number of customers with the Account Precious Metals totalled 16,103,300 The Bank proactively explored Precious Metals Trading Shanghai Gold Exchange Agency business and the number of contracted customers of Individual Precious Metals Trading Shanghai Gold Exchange Agency business amounted to 2,160,700 It introduced innovative products including silver leasing for enterprises and PC client for Individual Precious Metals Trading Shanghai Gold Exchange Agency business. With respect to investment and financial market business, the Bank introduced innovative products such as sales of physical precious metals to corporates. The Group enter ed into various derivative financial instruments relating to precious metals and other commodities for trading, hedging, asset and liability management and on behalf of customers. As we can read the precious metals on the bank balance sheets can be many gold or silver products I m positive all this gold has at some point been through the SGE system and therefor belongs to the visible gold flows But for now, let s be open minded to the possibility some of this gold can be added to the PBOC balance sheet in the future. Song Xin, President of the China Gold Association, General Manager of the China National Gold Group Corporation and Party Secretary, wrote I an opinion editorial in July 2014.Establish a Gold bank We need to establish our gold bank as soon as possible, and enable it to break the barrier between the commodity and monetary world It can further help us acquire reserves and give us more say and control in the gold market It may be guided under the PBOC and led by the China Gold Association, involving leading gold industry companies and commercial banks and it s business would include gold pricing fix , gold financing and leasing, gold-guaranteed payments, gold saving accounts, gold lending, gold production chain financing and issuance and trading of paper gold and other gold investments This gold bank can then naturally use market-oriented methods to change commodity gold into monetary gold reserves, thus help us increase our strategic gold reserves.3 All over supply in the Chinese gold market went to the PBOC Probably the most logical reason why analysts think the PBOC buys gold through the SGE is because of the huge difference between SGE withdrawals and consumer demand as reported by the World Gold Council WGC Let s have a look at this difference in a chart. As you can see there is an immense difference between the purple bars WGC demand and the red bars SGE withdrawals Possibly some of this gold has been moved to PBOC vaults I ve extensively been writing o n these pages the difference was not filled by PBOC purchases - for a lot of reasons but, I ll briefly let go of this analysis here, simply to be able to present all pros and cons.4 The PBOC buys discounted gold on the SGE to support the Chinese gold market There have been periods in, for example, 2014 in which gold on the SGE Au99 99 traded at a discount to London spot When the price in China is lower than in the UK this means there is relatively more supply in Shanghai than in London In the periods of persistent discounts on the SGE i e March 2014 withdrawals remain quite high Is the PBOC buying the discounted gold to take possession and support SGE trading. I shall rest here The purpose of the listed arguments is to provide you with as much information about the Chinese gold market and PBOC purchases as possible. In short according to my analysis the PBOC does not buy gold through the SGE. How Much Gold Does The PBOC Hold. What do we know about how much the PBOC is buying abroad Allow m e to present the clues we have.1 From a study by Zhang Bingnan, Vice President of the China Gold Association, we can read the PBOC buys approximately 500 tonnes a year August 2012.Forecast the optimal gold reserve capacity in the next 20 years The conclusion is 2020, China s gold optimal reserves should be 5,787 tonnes 6,750 tonnes 2030 should be 8,995 tonnes 10,532 tonnes.2 Yi Gang, deputy Chinese central bank governor, stated the PBOC is able to buy approximately 500 tonnes a year March 2013.We will always keep gold in mind as an option in reserve assets and investments We are able to import 500-600 tons a year, or more but we will also take into consideration a stable gold market If the Chinese government were to buy too much gold, gold prices would surge, a scenario that will hurt Chinese consumers We can only invest about 1-2 percent of the foreign exchange reserves into gold because the market is too small.3 Song Xin, President of the China Gold Association, wrote on July 2014 th e PBOC should first aim to reach the 4,000 tonnes mark. That is why, in order for gold to fulfill its destined mission, we must raise our official gold holdings a great deal, and do so with a solid plan Step one should take us to the 4,000 tonnes mark, more than Germany and become number two in the world, next, we should increase step by step towards 8,500 tonnes, more than the US.4 According to Deutsche Bank Markets Research the PBOC buys 500 tonnes a year November 2014.In another example, the Chinese government s open market purchases of roughly 500 tonnes per year have not prevented the gold price from plummeting in recent years.5 Numerous Chinese analyst suggest the PBOC aims to hold 5,000 tonnes in official gold reserves Roland Wang, World Gold Council China Managing Director, said March 26, 2015.China currently holds about 1 6 percent of its foreign exchange reserves in gold, which is relatively low compared with developed countries and some developing countries, WGC China managin g director Roland Wang said. The ideal amount should be at least 5 percent of its total forex reserves, Wang told Reuters in an interview in Hong Kong. Remarkably, the exact same day Reuters published Wang s statement Chinese newswire Caixin published a story on gold written by Hedge Fund manager Li Sheng March 26, 2015.Gold accounts for only 1 6 percent of China s forex reserves This is only a fraction of the figure in the United States and many other developed countries If China ever increased the level to 5 percent, it would have an enormous impact on global demand for gold. Li mentions the exact same numbers as Wang from the World Gold Council on the same day 1 6 and 5 of total FX reserves If China would announce they hold 5 of total reserves in gold, this would translate into roughly 5,000 tonnes. If the PBOC would have more than 5,000 tonnes of official gold reserves their gold to GDP ratio would be on par with to the US, Europe and Russia One of the theories about our current international monetary system that was detached from gold in 1971 is that it can shift to a new gold anchored system when the power blocks have equalized the chips Jim Rickards In other words, if the US, Europe, Russia and China all have an equal ratio of official gold reserves to their GDP, the international monetary system could make a transition towards gold. Chart conceived December 2015.6 Jeremy East, Managing Director Global Head, Metals Trading, Standard Chartered Bank, stated the PBOC is planning to support the renminbi with gold for internationalization June 25, 2014.I was at the Shanghai Derivatives Forum at the end of May and one of the speakers was a representative of the China Gold Association He gave us quite an interesting insight into the flavor of what is going on in China from a strategic perspective Some of the things he talked about included that China planned to change the landscape of world gold markets He talked about having a strong currency and about having that currency backed by gold, like the US dollar He also talked about people holding more gold and encouraging more people to hold gold That is not just individuals, but also the central bank. By the way, China is not planning to back their currency with gold in my opinion, they re more likely to support their currency with gold at no fixed parity.7 The PBOC could have bought as much as 1,750 tonnes of gold in London in between 2011 and 2015 Although, it s virtually impossible to track monetary gold flows around the world, as these are exempt from international merchandise trade statistics the least we can do is try In September 2015 Ronan Manly and Nick Laird conducted an investigation with respect to how much monetary and non-monetary gold was present in the UK Luckily, the London Bullion Market Association LBMA had published a few estimates in recent years about the total amount of physical gold in London monetary and non-monetary In 2011, there were 9,000 tonnes in London In 2015, there were 6,256 tonnes in London likely all in 12 5 Kg Good Delivery GD bars These estimates from the LBMA combined with Manly and Laird their investigation have resulted in the next charts co nceived by Nick Laird, Sharelynx. For a better understanding of physical gold located in London you can read this post by Ronan, this post by Nick or have a look at the next illustration conceived by Jesse from Cafe Americain. Remarkably, according to estimates by the LBMA the total amount of gold in London decreased by roughly 2,750 tonnes in the period from 2011 until early 2015, while UK s customs department discloses only 1,000 tonnes were net exported as non-monetary gold during this period Implying, 1,750 tonnes have been covertly exported as monetary gold. For more information please read my post The London Float And PBOC Gold Purchases.8 Dutch newspaper NRC Handelsblad published an article in 1993 about a 400 tonnes gold sale from the Dutch central bank that was partially bought by the PBOC you can read a translation of the article here From NRC. With 99 percent certainty we know that the People s Bank of China has been one of the buyers of the Dutch gold , said Philip Klapwijk from Goldfields Mining Services, an institute in London affiliated with the South African gold mines that specializes in research into the gold market Also other London bullion dealers have a strong suspicion that China was involved in the gold sales of DNB We have noted that the Chinese central bank has bought gold in recent months , said John Coley of the London bullion dealer Sharp Pixley and spokesman of the London Bullion Market Association. I should add, in the nineties the PBOC was the primary monopoly dealer in the Chinese domestic gold market and in theory could have sold the gold to Chinese jewelry fabricators.9 The PBOC could have bought as much as 600 tonnes of gold in Hong Kong in 2013 The PBOC or its proxies like SAFE, CIC and the Bank Of China is likely to buy bullion from places like the UK, US, Switzerland, Hong Kong or Singapore the big gold hubs Possibly, gold has at some point been imported into one of these countries, and disclosed in their respective customs reports as such, after which it was exported to China as monetary gold, without being disclosed in any customs reports Let s take Hong Kong for example From January 2013 until March 2015 Hong Kong has net imported 836 tonnes of gold, illustrated in the chart below That is a lot of gold for a country with 7 million inhabitants. Some of this gold could have been visibly non-monetary trade imported into Hong Kong, and then invisibly monetary trade exported to PBOC vaults in Beijing Resulting in less residual gold present in Hong Kong than data from the local Census Department indicates. Facts And Speculation. Let s chew on some numbers In the first chart below I ve plotted a conservative estimate of the total above ground gold reserves in China mainland on 30 September 2015 This conservative estimate is based on the assumption the PBOC has bought 654 5 tonnes of gol d since 2009, totalling at 1,708 tonnes in September 2015 this is what the PBOC officially discloses. What about the amount of private reserves displayed in the chart Let me explain my calculations from the starting point in 1994 Precious Metals Insights PMI has estimated that 2,500 tonnes of gold where held by population in the mainland in 1994, that s the dark grey jewelry base you can see in the chart The PBOC official reserves in 1994 accounted for 394 tonnes In addition, Chinese domestic mining was 90 tonnes in 1994 Below is a chart showing historic Chinese domestic mining output. China is said to be a gold importer since the 1990s , suggesting domestically mined gold was not exported after 1994 In the next screen shot from the China Gold Market Report 2010 we can read China has been a gold importer since the 1990s. Courtesy China Gold Market Report 2010.Furthermore, China began importing non-monetary gold a few years ago, have a look the next chart that shows historic gold trade bet ween Hong Kong and China Net imports ramp up in 2010 Other countries than Hong Kong, such as Switzerland, also started to visibly export to China after 2010.So, the starting point in the first chart on Estimated Total Gold Reserves in China is computed as.2,500 jewelry base 394 official reserves 90 mining 2,984 tonnes in 1994.Subsequently, I ve added yearly domestic mining output, as the Chinese didn t net export any gold since 1994, and net imports every succeeding year in the chart I ve subtracted all PBOC official reserves gains before 2007 from cumulative domestic mining, the gains after 2007 have I have not subtracted from cumulative domestic mining Why Two reasons. The Chinese domestic gold market SGE was fully liberalized in 2007 after which I think the PBOC stopped taking in any gold from domestic mines. According to my calculations, from 2003 until 2009 total Chinese gold supply scrap mine import from Hong Kong wasn t sufficient to meet total consumer demand and 454 tonnes in PB OC purchases over that period Although the PBOC claims all purchases before 2009 were done from domestic mines and scrap I don t think that s possible Hence, I think the PBOC started invisible import somewhere in between 2003 and 2009 And therefor, anything the PBOC added to its official gold reserves after 2007 I did not subtract from cumulative domestic mining. Lead by the aforementioned calculations, the PBOC had accumulated 1,708 tonnes and the Chinese private sector 13,070 tonnes on 30 September 2015 in total 14,778 tonnes This does not capture gold in the black market, that thrived before 2002, neither any assets from wealthy Chinese families It s the most conservative estimate I can make using all data I could find. However, in my opinion the PBOC has bought a lot more gold in recent years What all the clues mentioned above have in common, is that the PBOC has bought roughly 500 tonnes of gold per year since 2009 Let s make a new more speculative chart. The above chart is a copy of the previous conservative estimate, supplemented by 500 tonnes per year since 2009 in PBOC purchases, which I have not subtracted from cumulative domestic mining or cumulative import as my assumption is this gold has invisibly been imported and not bought through the SGE. Speculating the PBOC has accumulated 4,000 tonnes and the Chinese private sector 13,070 tonnes as of 30 September 2015 in total 17,070 tonnes. Above you could read clues from Song Xin China Gold Association, July, 2014 and Jeremy East June 25, 2014 about China working on a new monetary system that will include gold Something similar was said by Zhou Ming General Manager of the Precious Metals Department at ICBC, when Jeremy East asked him at the LBMA forum in Singapore June, 2014 if the statement Western gold moves East was true. With the status of the US dollar as the international reserve currency is shaky, a new global currency setup is being conceived Uncertain changes will happen to gold s traditional dollar-pricin g so the US dollar s influence on gold pricing needs to be re-evaluated. An open letter to all pension funds. The United Nations UN is preparing a Multilateral Legal Framework for Debt Restructuring Processes At the highest level an orderly sovereign debt restructuring for developed countries is designed. As I ve stated before on these pages, effectively the only thing Quantitative Easing QE can buy is time Since 2008 our monetary wizards have merely been able to keep the can on the road, perpetually kicking it further into the abyss through QE Solutions are still debated between policy makers behind closed doors, as our current fragile international monetary system does not allow public debate on significant changes or it will risk implosion. If sustainable monetary solutions can be implemented at all from the top of governing bodies within a society waiving the flag of capitalism remains to be seen In my opinion our system which is still presented as capitalism, can only survive from the essential input of the economic agents operating at the bottom of the market, producing goods with labor, setting prices, taking risk and creating real wealth Denying these fundamentals is what brought us into this crisis. Please read below a few snippets from resolution 68 304 drafted by the United Nations UN in September 2014 on global sovereign debt restructuring Reading between the lines the UN admits our current system is unsustainable and because of systemic fragilities reform to strengthen the international financial system is needed a monetary reset.107th plenary meeting. Recalling further the International Conference on Financing for Development and its outcome document, in which sustainable debt financing is recognized as an important element for mobilizing resources for public and private investment, and the Follow-up International Conference on Financing for Development to Review the Implementation of the Monterrey Consensus and its outcome document, the Doha Declaration on Financing for Development, as well as General Assembly resolution 68 204 of 20 December 2013. Noting that sovereign debt crises are a recurring problem that involves very serious political, economic and social consequences and that the restructuring processes of sovereign debt are a frequent phenomenon in the international financial system. Stressing the importance for developing countries, on a case-by-case basis, of debt relief, including debt cancellation, as appropriate, and debt restructuring as debt crisis prevention and management tools. Stressing also the need to work towards the establishment of responsible and preventive financial crisis policies to enhance transparent and sustainable national financial systems. Recognizing the sovereign right of any State to restructure its sovereign debt, which should not be frustrated or impeded by any measure emanating from another State. Recognizing also that the efforts of a State to restructure its sovereign debt should not be frustrated o r impeded by commercial creditors, including specialized investor funds such as hedge funds, which seek to undertake speculative purchases of its distressed debt at deeply discounted rates on secondary markets in order to pursue full payment via litigation. Noting also the concern expressed in the declaration of the Summit of Heads of State and Government of the Group of 77 and China on the theme For a New World Order for Living Well , held in Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Plurinational State of Bolivia, on 14 and 15 June 2014, concerning the so-called vulture funds and their actions of a highly speculative nature, which pose a risk to all future debt restructuring processes, for both developing and developed countries. Recalling, among other things, the work carried out by the International Monetary Fund in 2003, with the support of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, to formulate a proposal for a sovereign debt restructuring mechanism. Stressing also the need to continue to address systemic fragilities and imbalances and the need for continuing efforts to reform and strengthen the international financial system. Noting with concern that the international financial system does not have a sound legal framework for the orderly and predictable restructuring of sovereign debt, which further increases the cost of non-compliance. Recognizing the need to create a legal framework that facilitates the orderly restructuring of sovereign debts, allows the re-establishment of viability and growth without creating incentives that inadvertently increase the risk of non-compliance and acts as a deterrent to disruptive litigation that creditors could engage in during negotiations to restructure sovereign debts. Stressing, in this context, the importance of establishing a clear set of principles for the management and resolution of financial crises that take into account the obligation of sovereign creditors to act in good faith and with a cooperative spirit to reach a consensual rearrangement of the debt of sovereign States. Emphasizes the special importance of a timely, effective, comprehensive and durable solution to the debt problems of developing countries in order to promote their inclusive economic growth and development. Calls for the intensification of efforts to prevent debt crises by enhancing international financial mechanisms for crisis prevention and resolution, in cooperation with the private sector, with a view to finding solutions acceptable to all. Calls upon all Member States and the United Nations system, and invites the Bretton Woods institutions and the private sector, to take appropriate measures and actions for the implementation of the commitments, agreements and decisions of the major United Nations conferences and summits, in particular those related to the question of the external debt sustainability of developing countries. Recognizes the roles of the United Nations and the international finan cial institutions in accordance with their respective mandates, and encourages them to continue to support global efforts towards sustainable development and a durable solution to the problem of the debt of developing countries. Decides to elaborate and adopt through a process of intergovernmental negotiations, as a matter of priority during its sixty-ninth session, a multilateral legal framework for sovereign debt restructuring processes with a view, inter alia, to increasing the efficiency, stability and predictability of the international financial system and achieving sustained, inclusive and equitable economic growth and sustainable development, in accordance with national circumstances and priorities. Also decides to define the modalities for the intergovernmental negotiations and the adoption of the text of the multilateral legal framework at the main part of its sixty-ninth session, before the end of 2014.Additional ad hoc meetings on a Multilateral Legal Framework for Debt Restr ucturing Processes , open to all Member States and observers of the United Nations, were held in February this year and will continue through March, May and June in New York. h t Matt McBride. This post is part of the Chinese Gold Market essentials series Click here to go to an overview of all Chinese Gold Market Essentials for a comprehensive understanding the largest physical gold market globally. The largest physical gold market globally is the Chinese domestic gold market At the core of this market is the Shanghai Gold Exchange This article is serves as an introduction to both. The Shanghai Gold Exchange SGE is the largest physical gold exchange globally because China is both the largest gold importer and mine producer, and nearly all supply channels in the Chinese domestic market flow through the SGE Since 2013 the yearly amount of physical gold withdrawn from the SGE vaults has exceeded 2,000 tonnes. While Western consultancy firms like the World Gold Council WGC and Thomson Reuters G FMS GFMS hereafter report annual Chinese gold demand to be roughly 900 tonnes, the China Gold Association CGA states Chinese demand equals SGE withdrawals and thus is more than twice as much as is portrayed by the WGC and GFMS. This articles examine the basic mechanics of the Chinese domestic gold market and how nearly all physical gold in China flows through the SGE, in order to achieve the best understanding of the size of this market and true Chinese gold demand In addition, the enormous difference between SGE withdrawals and Chinese gold demand as disclosed by GFMS is highlighted. According to our analysis the structure of the Chinese domestic gold market with the SGE at its core has been designed by the People s Bank Of China PBOC , i to provide the Chinese citizenry direct access to the gold wholesale market 1 ii to grant all gold traded in the Chinese wholesale market to be of the highest quality, iii to be able for the PBOC to monitor the gold traded in the Chinese market, and ii ii keep track of the amount of gold added to Chinese non-government 2 reserves Sprouted from the centrally minded Chinese authorities the SGE system was conceived in 2002 to facilitate the citizenry to buy physical gold, strengthen the Chinese economy and develop the Chinese gold market to support China s internationalization. For our analysis of the Chinese domestic gold market we ve relied on Chinese laws, annual reports drafted by the CGA, SGE, PBOC and Shanghai Futures Exchange SHFE , next to sources in China at commercial banks and individual traders The aforementioned reports are. China Gold Association CGA Gold Yearbook 2006, 2007, 2008, 2013 Chinese. SGE Annual Report 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 English and Chinese. SGE Monthly Report December 2013.China Gold Market Report 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 English and Chinese. Most of these reports have been written in conjunction by the CGA, SGE, PBOC and SHFE. Exhibit 1 Courtesy China Gold Market Report 2011.All the English reports were avai lable on the SGE website until 2014, after which they ve been taken offline. Prior to 2002 the Chinese gold market was practically non-existent Back then the PBOC had the monopoly in trading gold in China and the people were only allowed to buy jewelry in designated shops In 2002 the PBOC erected its subsidiary the SGE to allow the free market to take over the the pricing and allocation of gold However, the Chinese domestic gold market didn t change over night. By approximation, the Chinese domestic gold market functioned as was planned starting in 2007, as in that year for the first time the amount of physical gold withdrawn from SGE vaults equaled Chinese wholesale gold demand that year All supply and demand was matched at the SGE, without the interference of the PBOC in 2007 In the CGA Gold Yearbook 2007 it s stated brackets added. In 2007, the amount of gold withdrawn from the warehouses of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the total wholesale gold demand of that year, was 363 194 tonnes. Fr om 2002 until 2007 Chinese wholesale gold demand did not equal SGE withdrawals, to which we conclude the reform of the market wasn t fully worked out in those years From 2007 until 2011 SGE withdrawals exactly matched Chinese wholesale gold demand, from 2012 until present SGE withdrawals roughly matched Chinese wholesale gold demand, according to the metrics used by the CGA in its Gold Yearbooks published in Chinese. Until this date 2016 we deem SGE withdrawals to be a useful indicator for Chinese wholesale gold demand, though true Chinese gold demand is slightly lower. There are a few basic rules in the Chinese domestic gold market that make SGE withdrawals equal Chinese wholesale gold demand, these rules compound to the mechanics of this market In the following these rules are expanded upon First with respect to the supply side, then the demand side. Chinese Gold Import. Since 2011 the main conduit of supply into the Chinese domestic gold market has been bullion import Gold bullion impor t into the domestic market can be done by banks that enjoy approval by the PBOC 3 though for every shipment a new License must be requested at the central bank This policy is referred to as one batch, one License Bullion export from the Chinese domestic gold market is prohibited as far as is publicly known. Currently there are fifteen banks that have been approved by the PBOC to import bullion, presented in random order. Shenzhen Development Bank Ping An Bank. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank. Agricultural Bank of China. China Construction Bank. Bank of Communications. China Merchants Bank. China Minsheng Bank. Standard Chartered. Bank of Shanghai. Industrial Bank. Bank of China. All bullion imported into the Chinese domestic gold market by one of the fifteen banks must be standard gold 4 and sold first through the SGE Standard gold in China is bullion casted by an LBMA or SGE approved refinery in bars or ingots of 50g, 100g, 1Kg, 3Kg or 12 5Kg, with a finene ss of 9999, 9995, 999 or 995 Solely standard gold is allowed into SGE certified vaults to be traded through the SGE system The Chinese cross-border gold trade rules state 5 brackets added. Gold to be imported shall be registered at a spot gold exchange SGE approved by the State Council where the first trade shall be completed. It s possible non-bank gold enterprises, if approved by the PBOC, can import and export gold dor, ore and jewelry into out of the domestic market if accompanied by a License, but this tonnage is insignificant in the greater scheme of things Most gold imported is standard gold and very little gold is permitted to be exported An exception, for example, is the Chinese Mint that can export golden Panda coins from the domestic market. The Chinese domestic gold market with the SGE at its core is separated from Chinese Free Trade Zones 3 Customs Specially Supervised Areas where different cross-border trade rules are applicable. Individuals can freely import and export 50 gr ams of gold when traveling However, this rules isn t very stringent on the import side Many mainland tourists visit Hong Kong to buy jewelry and bring as much jewelry as they like across the border when they return home In Hong Kong jewelry doesn t carry Value-Added Tax which makes these products less expensive than in China mainland. The Value-Added Tax System. When standard gold is traded over the SGE or SHFE it s exempt from Value-Added Tax 6 VAT When standard gold is not traded over the SGE or SHFE it s not exempt from VAT In addition, when non-standard gold, for example 200 gram bars, is traded in the Chinese domestic gold market off-SGE it s exempt from VAT. The VAT rules in the domestic market incentivize wholesale gold supply to be traded in the form of standard gold through the SGE which is most liquid exchange. In the table below the different forms of gold in China and the related VAT rates are listed. Exhibit 2 Chinese domestic gold market VAT rates. Domestic Gold Mining. The Peop le s Republic of China has the biggest gold mine production globally with an output of roughly 450 tonnes per annum 7 2015 The vast majority of this output is sold first through the SGE, as Chinese miners are required to sell standard gold over the SGE 8.Overseas gold mining output can be imported into the Chinese domestic gold market 3 subsequently to be refined into standard gold by an SGE approved refinery and traded over the SGE. Because of the aforementioned rules the best trading liquidity in China is at the SGE and thus gold mining companies are incentivized to cast their output in standard gold bars to sell on the SGE However, miners are also allowed to sell non-standard gold or gold products off-SGE For example, China National Gold Group Corporation 9 is a mining company that has its own physical stores to sell bars and ornaments. Recycled Gold. All supply that is not domestically mined or imported into China we ll label as recycled gold Because of the liquidity on the SGE and th e VAT rules regarding standard gold, recycled gold in the domestic market has an incentive to flow through the Chinese center bourse Recycled gold is not required to be sold through the SGE, yet many refineries cast standard gold and thus most finds its way to the center bourse. Exhibit 3 Standard gold bar 100g.1 SGE Standard Gold Bar 2 SGE Logo 3 Brand Logo 4 Bar Brand is Mount Tai, which is produced by Shandong Gold 5 Fineness 6 Weight 7 Bar Serial Number. When it comes to measuring recycled gold supply it gets complicated as all sources available CGA, GFMS, Metals Focus, CPM Group for this data do not use the same metrics and nomenclature In the remainder of this article the focus will be on the differences between GFMS and CGA metrics and nomenclature The most significant difference with respect to recycled gold is that GFMS merely discloses scrap old jewelry and industrial products that are sold by consumers in their statistics, where the CGA discloses recycled gold comprisi ng scrap , disinvestment and recycled distortion. The significance of differentiating between several recycled gold types is to separate the ones that have no net effect on the price from the ones that do Recycled gold can be subdivided in three categories this following is BullionStar nomenclature. Scrap old gold products jewelry or industrial sold for cash by consumers at retail level, and therefore true supply having a net effect on the gold price These scrap flows are included by both GFMS and the CGA in their statistics. Disinvestment bullion wholesale supply Fact is, in China any individual or institutional investors can buy demand gold directly at wholesale level SGE If down the road these investors decide to sell supply gold they can do so directly to a refinery Such disinvestment can then make its way to the SGE An investor wanting to sell 1500 Kg in gold bars is not likely to walk into a jewelry store to sell its material, more likely he will approach a refinery Because disinves tment surpasses retail stores jewelry shops and banks it s not included by GFMS in their supply statistics The CGA does include disinvestment in their supply statistics Disinvestment has a net effect on the price It can also be referred to as institutional supply 10.Recycled distortion recycled distortion can be for example process scrap which is metal spilled in manufacturing processes of jewelry or industrial products Suppose, a jewelry manufacturer buys 1 tonne of gold at the SGE and starts fabricating jewelry During production 800 Kg makes it into finished products while 200 Kg is scrap spill over The spill over, called process scrap is being sold back from the jewelry manufacturer to a refinery making its way to the SGE Effectively the 200 Kg has been recycled through the SGE being both demand and supply, having no net effect on the price Therefore, process scrap overstates any supply and demand balance Next to process scrap there can be other forms of gold being recycled through the SGE, which we ll collectively label as recycled distortion Recycled distortion is not included in GFMS data, but is included in CGA data. Have a look at an overview on how recycled gold types are named by all consultancy firms, next to if they re included in their statistics. Exhibit 4 China recycled gold flows. Because in terms of trading total supply and total demand are exactly equal one cannot sell gold without a buyer or buy gold without a seller consequently we can gauge demand by measuring supply As GFMS publishes incomplete Chinese gold demand statistics 10 it s essential to measure all types of supply to get the best estimate of true Chinese gold demand. Just like the London Bullion Market Association LBMA the SGE respects a chain of integrity Meaning, only SGE approved refineries can supply bars to the SGE system and once bars are withdrawn from SGE certified vaults they leave the chain of integrity To prevent fraud the bars that are withdrawn are not allowed to re-enter the SGE vaults The only way they can re-enter the SGE system the Chinese wholesale market is if the bars are melted down and recast into new bars by an SGE approved refinery In the SGE s Detailed Rules for Physical Delivery of the Shanghai Gold Exchange 11 it s stated. Any gold bullion withdrawn by a member or customer shall not be loaded into any Certified Vault in the future. The same rule is disclosed on the websites of China s largest banks that offer customers SGE trading accounts On ICBC s website it s stated 12 point 2.Exhibit 5 Courtesy ICBC. This rule is important for comprehending the mechanics of the Chinese domestic gold market, because traders cannot easily recycle gold through the SGE. SGE Withdrawals Equal Chinese Wholesale Gold Demand. Above has been established that supply equals demand and in the Chinese domestic gold market nearly all supply flows through the SGE Consequently, the volume of gold being withdrawn from SGE vaults is a proxy for Chinese wholesale gold demand Addi tionally, we saw that that there is recycled distortion flowing through the SGE that is overstating the supply and demand balance Simply put, when the volume of recycled distortion is subtracted from SGE withdrawals what is left is true Chinese gold demand. Presented below are a equations to clarification. SGE withdrawals Chinese Wholesale Gold Demand. As import mine scrap disinvestment recycled distortion is total physical supply to the SGE and everything that is withdrawn is total demand. SGE Withdrawals Import Mine Scrap Disinvestment Recycled Distortion Total Supply Wholesale Demand. But as was mentioned before recycled distortion blurs our view of demand, it has no net effect on the price, so it has to be subtracted from SGE withdrawals. True Chinese Gold Demand Import Mine Scrap Disinvestment SGE Withdrawals - Recycled Distortion. Chinese Wholesale Gold Demand True Chinese gold demand Recycled Distortion SGE Withdrawals. Exhibit 6 Example Chinese gold supply and demand balance. Please not e, in our Chinese gold supply and demand study two elements are left out On the supply side we left out stock carry over in SGE vaults from previous years, as this information is not publicly available, on the demand side we left out gold bought at the SGE that was not withdrawn from the vaults, as this information is also unknown. The formulas are supported by reports from the CGA and SGE from 2007 until 2013, as every year SGE withdrawals equaled wholesale gold demand in these documents Presented are CGA demand figures and SGE withdrawals from 2007 until 2013.2007 SGE Withdrawals 363 2 Tonnes. Exhibit 7 SGE Annual Report 2007 framed in red are total SGE withdrawals 2007 in Kg s 363 19365 Kg Exhibit 8 CGA Gold Yearbook 2007 framed in red is total demand in Kg s 363 194 Kg. Exhibit 9 SGE Annual Report 2008, total SGE withdrawals in Kg s Exhibit 10 CGA Gold Yearbook 2008 framed in red is total demand 2008 in tonnes.2010 SGE Withdrawals 837 2 Tonnes. Exhibit 11 SGE Annual Report 2010, total SGE withdrawals in Kg s Exhibit 12 China Gold Market Report 2010, total demand in tonnes.2013 SGE Withdrawals 2,197 Tonnes. Exhibit 13 SGE Monthly Report December 2013, framed in red is total 2013 SGE withdrawals in Kg Exhibit 14 CGA Gold Yearbook 2013 framed in black is total demand 2013 in tonnes Red jewelry manufacturing, blue small bar production, purple industrial material, turquoise coin manufacturing, yellow other, green net investment Exhibit 15 CGA Gold Yearbook 2013 framed in black is total supply 2013 in tonnes Purple domestic and overseas mine output, green recycled gold, blue bullion import. In the last screen shots from the CGA Gold Yearbook 2013 we can see total supply demand in 2013 was 2,198 84 tonnes, which is 1 88 tonnes higher than SGE withdrawals This can be explained by jewelry import that was counted as demand, but not sold through the SGE. Chinese Gold Demand Metrics. After having examined the supply side of the Chinese domestic gold market let s move on to the dema nd side From the fact most supply flows to the SGE, logically most demand is directed to to the SGE as well. Chinese wholesale gold demand as disclosed by the CGA, which equals SGE withdrawals, is the widest measure of demand It consists of consumer demand institutional demand and recycled distortion see exhibit 6 and 15 Consumer demand includes jewelry bar and coin sales at retail level and gold used in industrial fabrication Institutional demand comprises, in the case of China, individual and institutional investors buying bullion directly in the SGE wholesale market. The predominant reason for the difference between SGE withdrawals and Chinese gold demand as disclosed by GFMS, is the fact that GFMS only discloses consumer demand in its reports, not institutional demand And they do so not only for China but for the rest of the world as well, which is an incomplete and misleading representation of gold supply and demand Hereby GFMS makes gold look like a commodity instead of a currency, denying its most important trading characteristics in price formation 10 Stunningly, the difference between SGE withdrawals and GFMS demand has aggregated to an astonishing 5,922 tonnes from January 2007 until September 2016 13 The next graph illustrates the difference. Exhibit 16 The difference between Chinese consumer gold demand and SGE withdrawals. As on the supply side, we can draft simple equations for the demand side. SGE Withdrawals Consumer Demand Institutional Demand Recycled Distortion Chinese Wholesale Gold Demand. Consumer Demand Institutional Demand True Chinese Gold Demand. Consumer Demand Jewelry Retail Bar Coin Industrial. Institutional Demand Direct Purchases At The SGE. Direct Purchases At The SGE SGE Withdrawals Recycled Distortion Consumer Demand. In the CGA demand table for 2013 exhibit 14 it s stated the difference between consumer demand and total demand was labeled as net investment which is calculated by the CGA as a residual, SGE withdrawals minus consumer demand De monstrated in equations Investment Institutional Demand Recycled Distortion. However, because the exact volume of recycled distortion and disinvestment is unknown, institutional demand is unknown as well Our best estimate of institutional demand is net investment Again, all this is clearly illustrated in exhibit 6.Everyone In China Can Buy Gold Directly At The SGE. So what s causing the massive direct purchases at the SGE Demand for gold , is the simple answer But there s more that can be told on direct purchases. In China not only wholesale enterprises such as jewelry manufacturers and bullion banks can trade gold on the SGE, everyone can open an SGE account and start trading The next graph illustrates how wholesale manufacturers are responsible for approximately half of SGE withdrawals for exact ratios see exhibit 16 These wholesale enterprises will buy gold at the SGE and subsequently withdraw the metal to fabricate products ie jewelry, ornaments and bank bars to be sold at retail leve l Individual and institutional SGE customers are responsible for the other half of SGE withdrawals These customers will buy gold directly at the SGE and withdraw the metal to store in private vaults. Exhibit 17 Example SGE Withdrawals Distribution. According to our analysis the PBOC does not buy its monetary gold through the SGE, so effectively all gold flowing through the SGE ends up in the private sector 14.Purchasing gold directly at the SGE is fairly simple in China Every natural person, institution or wholesale enterprise can buy gold or trade derivatives at the SGE For 50 RMB one can open an SGE account at his local commercial bank branch or via a smartphone application 1 Then, he or she receives a unique 10-digit trading number that gives access to the account consisting of a Bullion Account and Margin Account The 10-digit trading number will stay with an individual forever, even if he or she switches banks The procedure is illustrated in the picture below. Exhibit 18 Courtesy Chin a Gold Market Report 2008.When an SGE physical gold contract 15 is exchanged the full amount of corresponding funds is promptly transferred from the buyer s Margin Account to seller s Margin Account At the same time the related bullion is transferred from the seller s Bullion Account to the buyer s Bullion Account settlement is T 0 Gold credited to a Bullion Account is allowed to be withdrawn from the vaults at any time. Exhibit 19 Courtesy China Gold Market Report 2011.Early 2016 was the launch of the smartphone application Yijintong 1 that allows anyone with an internet connection in China to open an SGE account and trade directly on the SGE wholesale platform appreciating the lowest spreads in China The Yijintong smartphone app can be downloaded through the following QR-code. As fas as is publicly known, when Yijintong was launched the SGE already counted 8 3 million individual and 10,000 institutional customers, next to 246 members globally of which 183 domestic members and 63 intern ational members 1 From the huge amount of individual and institutional customers we can easily understand the huge volumes of direct purchases at the SGE. The only reason individual investors would buy gold in a jewelry shop or bank is because these bars are aesthetically superior and come in all sorts of shapes and sizes. Exhibit 21 Chow Tai Fook gold bar. Though decorated bars come at a significant premium Obviously, large investors would not buy retail bars but prefer relatively cheaper SGE bars Which is the reason for the huge discrepancy between consumer demand and SGE withdrawals many investors buy gold directly at the SGE. Wang Zhe, Chairman President of the SGE in 2010 wrote 16.During the first four months of this year, the number of individual investors kept growing rapidly and now has exceeded two million The Exchange has become the main channel of investment of physical precious metals, fulfilling the needs of domestic residents. This quote describes that as early as in 2010 dire ct purchases at the SGE by individual clients exceeded retail bar purchases And individual institutional investors bypassing retail shops buying gold directly at the SGE has been a trend that has accelerated ever since see exhibit 16.By now a comprehensive framework has been provided of the basic mechanics of the Chinese domestic gold market From all the equations and illustrations presented readers should be able to grasp the sheer size of this physical gold market. Kindly note, to avoid confusion, in some publications the CGA discloses only consumption demand, similar to GFMS, excluding net investment For example in 2014 17 brackets added. Gold consumption in China grew to 1,176 40 tonnes in 2013 with jewellery demand 716 50 tonnes and retail bullion demand 375 73 tonnes. Lastly, more examples are provided that confirm the more realistic size of Chinese gold demand Na Liu, from CNC Asset Management Ltd, traveled to China in 2014 and spoke to The President of the SGE Transaction Departme nt Afterwards Na reported on Chinese gold demand in 2013 18 brackets added. The President of SGE Transaction Department The President said This 2,200 tonnes of gold, after leaving our vaults, they entered thousands of Chinese households in the form of jewellery and investment purchases consumer demand direct purchases. when we asked why the China Gold Association s consumer demand number is so low, the President said They mainly cover the gold sales through the gold shops This is their main source of information And their number is quite useful in that way However, our system SGE withdrawals has broader coverage. Clearly consumer demand is gold sales through the gold shops and SGE withdrawals have broader coverage consumer demand direct purchases. Needless to say, the people that run the SGE, CGA, PBOC and SHFE are all related Depending on the occasion they choose to disclose consumer demand or wholesale gold demand SGE Chairman, Xu Luode, said at the LBMA conference in 2014 19 brackets ad ded. Last year 2013 , China imported 1,540 tonnes of gold Such imports, together with the 430 tonnes of gold we produced ourselves, means that we have, in effect, supplied approximately 2,000 tonnes of gold last year. The 2,000 tonnes of gold were consumed by consumers in China Of course, we all know that the Chinese dama middle-aged women accounts for a significant proportion in purchasing gold So last year, our gold exchange s inventory reduced by nearly 2,200 tonnes SGE withdrawals , of which 200 tonnes was recycled gold. Typically, Xu measure the supply side import mine production 2,000 tonnes in 2013 , for Chinese gold demand, as this is the amount of gold added to Chinese private sector reserves recycled gold doesn t add anything to reserves Indirectly Xu shows interest in the amount of private sector gold reserves within the domestic market. All in all, there are several ways to measure Chinese gold demand A next article 13 is dedicated to the data and details of all metrics, for no w, please have look at an overview below. Gold sold at retail level consumer demand GFMS demand. Import mine net gold added to Chinese private sector reserves. Import mine scrap disinvestment true Chinese gold demand. SGE withdrawals wholesale gold demand. The definition of SGE withdrawals slightly changed late 2014 with the inception of the Shanghai International Gold Exchange How it was changed can be read in the subsequent posts of the Chinese Gold Market Essentials Workings Of The Shanghai International Gold Exchange Why SGE Withdrawals Equal Chinese Gold Demand And Why Not The Argument List. All Chinese Gold Market Essentials Articles. Kindly note the pattern. There is a story being told to the masses about Chinese gold demand that is grossly incorrect The huge discrepancy between numbers from the World Gold Council WGC and actual gold demand is so wide yet cunningly hidden I must conclude there is essential information about physical gold demand deliberately kept privy. Let s go back to A pril 2013 the price of gold made a nosedive, which spawned an unprecedented physical buying spree across the globe, most notably in China Withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange SGE , that equal Chinese wholesale demand closed at 2,197 metric tonnes December 31, 2013, up 93 y y. However, the WGC the global authority on gold initially stated Chinese consumer gold demand had reached 1,066 tonnes in 2013, an astonishing 1,131 tonnes less than wholesale demand In the China Gold Association CGA Gold Yearbook 2013 it was disclosed China had net imported 1,524 tonnes and domestically mined 428 tonnes Without counting scrap supply this adds up to 1,952 tonnes adding scrap total supply has been well over 2,000 tonnes It s impossible consumer demand was only 1,066 tonnes. Finally the WGC admitted their initial estimate of 1,066 tonnes of Chinese gold demand was grossly understated By email they wrote me on February 12, 2015.Thank you for emailing the World Gold Council, we apolog ize that your previous enquiry was missed. Our figure for Chinese consumer demand in 2013 has since been revised upwards to 1,311 8 tonnes from the original figure of 1,066 tonnes published in the full year 2013 Gold Demand Trends report. That s an increase of 23 by the largest physical buyer on the planet Although still far from actual demand, 23 is quite a revision Was there an official press release from the WGC to inform the world on this revision No I ve asked the WGC, but I got no reply Did the mainstream media properly cover the 23 revision Not that I m aware of. Actual Chinese gold demand 2013 has been knavishly hidden from the masses 99 of the financial industry copies WGC numbers. In 2014 the WGC again grossly understated Chinese gold demand SGE withdrawals accounted for 2,102 tonnes, though the WGC stated Chinese consumer demand was only 814 tonnes Again, a gap of more than 1,100 tonnes All arguments the WGC has brought up to explain the surplus in the Chinese gold market can on ly make up about 15 of the gap gold-for-gold supply and stock movement change. For 2014 grossly understating Chinese gold demand wasn t enough for the Council to distract the world s eye from China s gold hunger more was needed By a few tonnes the WGC put India s consumer gold demand ahead of China In their Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2014 Indian demand is disclosed at 843 tonnes, transcending Chinese demand 814 tonnes by 29 tonnes, just enough Most media simply copied these numbers and are stating India is now the world s largest gold consumer no critical thoughts added In my opinion this is the biggest fallacy in finance of our time. In 2014 China imported at least 1,250 tonnes and domestically mined 452 tonnes According to GFMS scrap supply was 182 tonnes, adding up to total supply at 1,884 tonnes But, we re supposed to believe India is the largest gold consumer on earth at 843 tonnes Yes. I m open minded towards the possibility there is an agenda that is allowing China to buy as much gold for as little fiat as possible to make them accumulate whatever necessary before a monetary reset I see no other explanation for the events unfolding in front of our eyes. Can you imagine what would have happened to global gold sentiment if the WGC had disclosed 2013 Chinese demand at 2,100 tonnes and 2014 Chinese gold demand at 1,850 tonnes Sentiment would have been influenced to say the least. As I wrote in my first post on why SGE withdrawals equal Chines wholesale demand September 18, 2013.If you think about it, the redistribution of gold is the only logical thing to happen given the state the world economy is in gold has to go to China in order to equalize the chips. More Awareness About Chinese Gold Demand. Luckily my camp is growing More and more analysts are using SGE withdrawals as a proxy for Chinese wholesale demand instead of inaccurate WGC data CNC Asset Management wrote in a newsletter September 25, 2014.To understand China s real physical gold demand, investors should simply look at the weekly withdrawals from Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults We visited the Shanghai Gold Exchange SGE in May and talked to the senior executives of the exchange After reviewing the exchange s trading mechanism, we are of the view that the weekly withdrawal figures provide a much more accurate data series that reflects China s aggregate wholesale demand in a timely way. More recently MarketWatch published SGE withdrawals and its significance, and Dr Martin Murenbeeld, Chief Economist at Dundee Capital Markets, wrote in his newsletter on February 2015.It follows from this opaque picture of Chinese supply and demand that some observers, including ourselves, have decided Shanghai Gold Exchange SGE deliveries data provides the best window on what might be happening on the demand side in China There are a number of observers who have noted the widely circulated estimates of gold demand are woefully inaccurate, precisely because these data are so significantly lower than SGE deliv eries data. Latest data from the SGE shows withdrawals in the last five days around Lunar Year February 16, 17 and 25, 26, 27 accounted for 38 tonnes Total SGE withdrawals in the first two months of 2015 surpassed 410 tonnes SGE withdrawals Q1 can reach 550 tonnes or more However, don t expect Chinese gold demand published by the WGC on Q1 to be anywhere near these figures. One of the main causes some of my colleague gold analysts assume SGE withdrawals are inflated and cannot be used as a measure for Chinese wholesale gold demand, is because of Chinese Commodity Financing Deals CCFDs However, this analysis is incorrect as will be demonstrated in this post. Round Tripping And Chinese Gold Trade Rules. CCFDs are ways for Chinese speculators to acquire cheap funds using commodities as collateral When it comes to using gold as collateral for CCFD there are two options round tripping and gold leasing What is round tripping Goldman Sachs GS has properly explained the process in a report dated M arch 2014 From GS brackets added by me. While commodity financing round tripping deals are very complicated, the general idea is that arbitrageurs borrow short-term FX loans from onshore banks in the form of LC letter of credit to import commodities and then re-export the warrants a document issued by logistic companies which represent the ownership of the underlying asset to bring in the low cost foreign capital hot money and then circulate the whole process several times per year As a result, the total outstanding FX loans associated with these commodity financing deals is determined by. the volume of physical inventories that is involved. commodity prices. the number of circulations. Our understanding is that the commodities that are involved in the financing deals include gold, copper, iron ore, and to a lesser extent, nickel, zinc, aluminum, soybean, palm oil and rubber. Chinese gold financing deals are processed in a different way compared with copper financing deals, though both are aimed at facilitating low cost foreign capital inflow to China Specifically, gold financing deals involve the physical import of gold and export of gold semi-fabricated products to bring the FX into China as a result, China s trade data does reflect, at least partially, the scale of China gold financing deals In contrast, Chinese copper financing deals do not need to physically move the physical copper in and out of China, so it is not shown in trade data published by China customs In detail, Chinese gold financing deals includes four steps. Onshore gold manufacturers pay LCs to offshore subsidiaries and import gold from Hong Kong to mainland China inflating import numbers. offshore subsidiaries borrow USD from offshore banks via collaterizing LCs received. onshore manufacturers get paid by USD from offshore subsidiaries and export the gold semi-fabricated products inflating export numbers. repeat step 1-3.Important to understand is that gold in round tripping needs to be physically imported into China and then exported, in contrast to copper The reason being, which GS fails to mention, that the trade rules for gold in China are different than for all other commodities. General Trade vs Processing Trade. In essence gold bullion is prohibited from being exported out of the Chinese domestic gold market by the PBOC in general trade For general trade fifteen banks enjoy a PBOC license to import gold. Shenzhen Development Bank Ping An Bank. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank. Agricultural Bank of China. China Construction Bank. Bank of Communications. China Merchants Bank. China Minsheng Bank. Standard Chartered. Bank of Shanghai. Industrial Bank. Bank of China. All bullion imported through general trade is required to be sold first through the SGE, and consequently all gold flowing through the SGE is prohibited from being exported Detai l a few jewelry companies also have a gold trade license for general trade, but this is insignificant But there is more to it, which is another form of cross-border trade processing trade To explain what processing trade is, it would be best to first describe why it exists. Since 2002 the State Council is active in stimulating the Chinese population to accumulate physical gold Through commercial banks the Chinese people are informed about gold s function in the economy and able to purchase gold granted of the finest quality They can submit for a gold savings account, speculate in paper gold on the SGE or buy physical gold directly at the SGE, all through a commercial bank as a broker. Some examples of how state-owned banks promote gold, from the Agricultural Bank China. Physical gold is both a commodity and a financial product It can be a gift or collection and may serve as an important investment vehicle for realizing preservation and appreciation With a distinctive preservation function , physical gold is powerful to defend against inflation. Considerations 1 Do not stop when gold price is low Gold price may go up or down depending on the political and economic conditions and many other factors Only by constant accumulation will the overall investment cost be reduced 2 Persistence is the key Investment risk is reduced by the average cost, the longer the investment period, the better in mitigating the impact of the fluctuation in gold price When the market rallies, the gain will be protected and increase the investment. Outside an ICBC branch in Shanghai Inside an ICBC branch in Shanghai. The State Council s strategy is to import as much gold as possible and export nil in order to build a strong economic and financial security barrier for China. However, China doesn t want to be left out in the global jewelry fabrication market, for which gold is required to be exported To make China participate in the global jewelry fabrication market Chinese jewelry companies can import and export gold through processing trade This is how it works, simplified. In processing trade raw materials from abroad are imported, processed into finished goods and then these products are required to be exported This processing is usually done there can be exceptions in Customs Specially Supervised Areas CSSA , also called Free Trade Zones FTZ Gold processing trade doesn t require a general gold trade license from the PBOC Note, to export gold from a CSSA to a non-CSSA the rest of the mainland a general gold trade license from the PBOC is required. The next illustration demonstrates two types of processing trade. An example for a processing trade would be gold from Hong Kong is exported to Shenzhen a CSSA just across the border from Hong Kong and well known for its vast jewelry industry 4000 manufacturers , then the gold is fabricated into jewelry changed in shape or form processed and imported back into Hong Kong By the way, this trade would show up in Hong Kong s customs report, but it wouldn t affect Hong Kong net export to the mainlan d. Through processing trade gold can be imported into exported out of China mainland, but these flows are completely separated from the Chinese domestic gold market where the SGE system operates Gold imported through processing trade is therefor not required to be sold through the SGE it is not even allowed to be traded through the SGE. In the next illustration we can see Hong Kong representing the rest of the world , the CSSA in Shenzhen and the mainland the Chinese domestic god market. Processing trade is often done between Hong Kong and Shenzhen all gold exported from China CSSA to Hong Kong or any other foreign nation is processing trade. Round tipping by Chinese speculators can only be done through processing trade it simply isn t possible through general trade, as in general trade gold is prohibited from being exported Round tripping flows are completely separated from the Chinese domestic gold market and the SGE, hence, round tripping doesn t inflate SGE withdrawals Only by bending the rules, set up a fake gold jewelry company in a CSSA, speculators can import and export gold to round trip Consequently, GS notes gold needs to be physically imported and exported for round tripping, in contrast to copper. In theory the gold tied up in round tripping can be at max the amount of gold yearly exported from China to Hong Kong , at minimum a far smaller amount that is being used in many cycles, in every cycle being counted as import and export Round tripping doesn t inflate net export from Hong Kong to China. The Chinese Gold Lease Market. The other gold financing deal that can be used by Chinese speculators is gold leasing which is exactly the same as a gold loan In general gold leasing is a normal market practice For the sake of simplicity, I have categorised all potential gold lessees borrowers in three groups gold miners, jewelers and speculators to have a look at some examples with US dollars to learn how gold leasing is done in financial markets. A gold miner needs fun ds to invest in new production goods It can borrow dollars from a bank at an 7 interest rate, or borrow gold from a central bank at 2 the gold lease rate is usually lower than the dollar interest rate The miner chooses to borrow 10,000 ounces from a central bank and sells it spot at 1,500 an ounce The proceeds are 15,000,000 that can be used to invest in new production goods In a years time the miner has mined 10,200 ounces to repay the principal debt plus interest the interest on gold loans can be settled in gold or dollars, depending on the contract Through gold leasing the miner has acquired cheap funding, if compared to a dollar loan The movement in the price of gold during the lease period is neglected in this example. A jeweler needs funds to buy gold stock for production It can borrow dollars from a bank for 7 , or borrow gold for 2 The jeweler borrows 10,000 ounces, with which it can start fabricating jewelry To hedge itself against price fluctuations the jeweler can sell spot, for example, 10 of the 10,000 ounces it has borrowed 1,000 ounces at 1,500 makes 1,500,000 to buy gold futures contracts in order to lock in a future price After a year the jeweler has sold the 9,000 ounces as jewelry for dollars and can take delivery of the long futures contracts to repay the gold loan If one buys long 10,000 ounces through a futures contract for delivery in a year s time, initially he is required to pay a margin for example 10 When the contract expires and he wants to take physical delivery he must pay the remaining 90.A pseculator is looking for cheap funds It can borrow dollars from a bank for 7 , or borrow gold for 2 He borrows 10,000 ounces, sells it spot at 1,500 an ounce The proceeds are 15,000,000 and subsequently these newly acquired funds can be used to invest in higher yielding products 2 If the trader chooses to hedge itself in the futures market is up to him After a year the 10,000 ounces plus interest need to be repaid, either the trader can purchase gol d with the profits made on the higher yielding investment or from delivery of futures contracts. In China all gold leases are settled through the SGE both lessor lender and lessee are required to have an SGE Account If a lease is agreed between two parties gold is transferred from one SGE Bullion Account to the other, when the lease comes due the gold is returned At SGE level it s as simple as that. There is a big difference between jewelers that lease gold in contrast to miners and speculators Jewelers lease gold because they need physical gold for fabrication miners and speculators lease gold because they are seeking cheap funds, they will always sell the leased gold without withdrawing the metal spot at the SGE to use the proceeds Why would a speculator withdrawal the metal. Therefor, IF SGE withdrawals contain leased gold this is for jewelry fabrication that eventually ends up at retail level When a jeweler needs to repay the lease it simply buys gold at the SGE, subsequently this go ld will be transferred from his SGE Bullion Account to the lessor s SGE Bullion Account It s not likely a jeweler would buy gold off-SGE to repay a lease, which than would need to be refined into newly cast bars by an SGE approved refiner to enter the SGE vaults and to be credited to the lessors SGE Bullion Account. Phillip Klapwijk, analyst with Precious Metals Insights PMI in Hong Kong, previous Executive Chairman of Thomson Reuters GFMS and consultant for the World Gold Council, has stated there is 1,000 tonnes of gold tied up in CCFD not true Additionally, he said. a good part of the withdrawals represent gold that is used purely for financing and other end-uses that are not equivalent to real consumption. Needless to say I don t agree Am I the only one No When Na Liu of CNC Asset Management Ltd visited the SGE in May 2014 he was told by the President of the SGE Transaction Department. First, the withdrawal data reflects the actual gold wholesales in China In 2013, the total gold withd rawal from the SGE vaults amounted to 2,196 96 tonnes The President of SGE Transaction Department The President said This 2,200 tonnes of gold, after leaving our vaults, they entered thousands of Chinese households in the form of jewellery and investment purchases. Second, none of the 2,200 tonnes of gold was bought by the Chinese central bank The President said The PBOC does not buy gold through the SGE. Third, the financing deals do not exaggerate SGE s assessment of China s gold demand This is because the financing deals do not take place after the gold leaves the vaults. The President of the SGE s Transaction Department is clearly stating most leasing happens within the SGE system and the metal is not withdrawn I m not saying it can t occur a speculator would withdrawal metal from the SGE vaults, but in general he would not Therefor, gold leasing by speculators does not inflate SGE withdrawals and therefor does not explain the difference between SGE withdrawals and Chinese consumer gold demand as disclosed by the World Gold Council. As mentioned before jewelers do withdraw gold from the SGE vaults, but this is eventually to be sold as jewelry However, the amount of gold leased and withdrawn by jewelers that has not yet been sold as jewelry, is stock inventory likely hedged in the futures market and thus can be excluded from gold demand depending on what metric is used. The WGC had also stated in a report 1,000 tonnes was tied up in CCFD based on PMI s data But, when I send the WGC an email to ask about the details, they replied brackets adde by me. Gold leasing Banks have built up this business to support China s burgeoning gold industry Miners, refiners and fabricators all have a requirement to borrow gold from time to time For example, fabricators borrow gold to transform into jewelry, sell and then repay the bank with the proceeds It is an effective way for the fabricator to use the bank s balance sheet to fund its business Banks have strict policies in place for who they can lend to, and these have been tightened over recent years, but during PMIs field research it identified that, in some instances, organizations other than genuine gold business had used this method to obtain gold, which it would then sell to obtain funding in this case the gold wouldn t be withdrawn from the SGE vaults It would then hedge its position According to PMI, this can generate a lower cost of funding than borrowing directly from the bank Our colleagues in China think this would be a very small part of total gold leasing the majority of it would be used to meet the demands of genuine gold businesses. Here the World Gold Council admits gold leases that are withdrawn from the SGE vaults are used for genuine gold business being part of true gold demand More confirmation gold leasing does not explain the difference. Round Tripping gold flows are completely separated from the Chinese domestic gold market SGE and gold leasing only inflates SGE withdrawals when used for genuine gold business Therefor, SGE withdrawals equal Chinese wholesale gold demand. Just after I reported on the repatriation of 122 5 tonnes of gold by The Netherlands from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York FRBNY and about the Eurosystem allocating as much of its gold reserves as possible a global run on gold which can only be seen in advance of a reform of the international monetary system, the next Euro system member has come forward, Belgium. In Europe so far Germany has been repatriating gold since 2012 from the US and France, The Netherlands has repatriated 122 5 tonnes a few weeks ago from the US, soon after Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National party of France, penned an open letter to Christian Noyer, governor of the Bank of France, requesting that the country s gold holdings be repatriated back to France, and now Belgium is making a move Who s next And why are all these countries seemingly so nervous to get their gold ASAP on own soil. VTM-nieuws has just reported the Belgium central bank has confirmed it s investigating to repatriate all its gold reserves. Our country is investigating to repatriate all gold reserves The Belgium central bank has confirmed this to VTM-nieuws. UPDATE December 8.Moments ago I called the Belgium central bank The press department stated they couldn t tell me anything more than the Governor of the Belgium central bank NBB , Luc Coene, told VTM-nieu ws I found the full item from VTM-nieuws make sure captions are on. Presenter stored abroad, in specialized strongly secured banks The lion share is stored in London at the Bank Of England, however, the Belgium central bank is now investigating how that gold can be repatriated. Luc Coene If one feels that in surrounding countries these decisions are taken, one knows that this question will be asked to us as well So we re pro-active investigating all the elements, so when the question will be asked, we can answer it. Presenter The Netherlands repatriated in utmost secrecy a part of their gold reserves a few weeks ago, Germany did the same to take away the uncertainty about the gold At the end of the nineties Belgium sold 1,000 tonnes of gold the pay of debt Now our country owns 227 tonnes To ship this back home is not a simple task. Luc Coene The practical problem is the transport of the gold, with all the risk that come with it Second, if we repatriate we need to setup a large security sys tem in Belgium Though currently this is done by certain central banks that are specialized in this. Presenter In the end, if the gold will be repatriated is a decision that has to be taken by the government. If one feels that in surrounding countries these decisions are taken, one knows that this question will be asked to us as well This statement by Coene tells me the repatriation virus is spreading in Northern Europe the question is not IF Belgium will repatriate, but WHEN Remember, in 2012 the Governor of the Dutch central bank said he wasn t planning to repatriate the Dutch gold and that all gold was safe in New York, though shortly after this statement he started the repatriation process as demonstrated in this post The fact Coene clearly states he s investigating the repatriation process will very likely ensue in shipping home the Belgian gold. Additionally, I don t think many central bank members of the Eurosystem operate in isolation Not so long ago we learned the Eurosystem is di sclosing the ratio of allocated versus unallocated gold reserves and is decreasing the amount of unallocated gold Repatriating would only be a logic next step. The presenter of the news item says Belgium sold 1,000 tonnes of gold in the nineties to payoff debt, however, it can be Belgium sold gold for the same reason The Netherlands sold 1,100 tonnes Which is, according to Jan Kees de Jager former Minister of Finance of The Netherlands. equalize its gold holdings relative to other important gold holding nations. Since 1999 all European central banks collaborated in a program called the Central Bank Gold Agreements CBGA , or the Washington Agreement On Gold, to jointly manage gold sales It s possible European central banks managed their gold sales also prior to 1999, after all the preparations for the euro started long before and all these central banks must have been on the same page ever since. Belgium holds a large share of its reserves in the UK, a smaller part in Canada and at the BIS in Basel Of the total 227 tonnes Belgium gold reserves, 210 tonnes are allocated and 17 tonnes are unallocated The NBB presumably has a little less than 24 tonnes leased From the NBB website. At the end of May 2013 there are still gold loans outstanding with five commercial banks totalling 24 97 tonnes of gold Taking account of the due dates, that position is expected to decline further during the 2013 financial year. Click here to read French and Dutch the official statement of the Belgium government on the location of its gold reserves. NBB just send me the official statement of Luc Coene in the VTM-nieuws item in Dutch Click to view. This is all I could find for now This post will be updated when more news comes in. Posts navigation. Status 500 - Request processing failed nested exception is Error resolving template mobile contacts-popular , template might not exist or might not be accessible by any of the configured Template Resolvers. type Exception report. message Request processing failed nested exception is Error resolving template mobile contacts-popular , template might not exist or might not be accessible by any of the configured Template Resolvers. description The server encountered an internal error that prevented it from fulfilling this request. note The full stack trace of the root cause is available in the Apache Tomcat 8 0 14 logs. Apache Tomcat 8 0 14.Joseph Ranthum. Escanaba, Michigan Environmental Health Specialist Public Health Delta and Menominee Counties Government Administration. Skills Environmental Health, Food Safety. Education University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire 2008 2011 Bachelor of Science BS , Environmental and Public Health. University of Wisconsin-Marinette 2006 2008 Associate of Arts and Scienc es AAS. Experience Ashland County Health and Human Services Department May 2011 August 2011.Houston, Texas Corporate Counsel at Applied Optoelectronics, Inc Law Practice. Skills Legal Research, Westlaw, Legal Writing, Litigation, Civil Litigation, Commercial Litigation, Product Liability, Trials, Lexis, Mediation, Personal Injury, Contract Law, Appeals, Courts, Arbitration, Alternative Dispute Maritime Law. Education South Texas College of Law 2005 2008 Doctor of Law JD. The University of Texas at Austin 2001 2005 B S Political Communications. Experience Applied Optoelectronics, Inc February 2014 Present Tramonte II Cotten. Grand Rapids, Michigan Warehouse at Road Equipment Parts Center Transportation Trucking Railroad. Marc Antonio. Vancouver, Canada Area Finance Manager at ShangriLa Hotels and Resorts Accounting. 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Skills Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Office, Microsoft Word, Research, Sales, Leadership, PowerPoint, Training, English, Process Improvement, Windows, HTML, Management. Education Wingate University 2010 2014 Bachelor of Applied Science Human Services, General. Experience SPORTS CONNECTION October 2009 Present. Sarasota, Florida Area Psychotherapist at St Armand s Medical Center Mental Health Care. Education University of South Florida 1988 1990.Kristine Kliebenstein. Eugene, Oregon at Design. Experience Jcpenny salon Hair stylistJcpenny salonSeptember 2006 Present. Nick Snider.